Monthly digest

In November, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (AFRF) continued its efforts to capture Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, as well as Kupiansk in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region. Furthermore, the Russian military and political leadership falsely declared that Kupiansk was under the control of the AFRF. According to Oleh Apostol, commander of Ukraine’s Air Assault Forces, the Ukrainian army  completed an operation to regain control of the Dobropillia area. This operation eliminated the consequences of an attempted Russian armed forces breakthrough. Meanwhile, the AFRF took advantage of a lack of coordination during the rotation of Defence Forces of Ukraine (DFU) units in the Huliaipole area and captured positions previously held by Ukraine. According to Ukraine, Russia’s total losses by the end of November amounted to approximately 1,174,000 troops. 

Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil industry facilities continue. On 14 November, for example, the Sheskharis offshore oil terminal, which had handled around 20% of all Russian oil exports by sea, was hit and ceased operations. On 29 November, two tankers from the Russian shadow fleet in the Black Sea were hit by naval drones for the first time. At the same time, another tanker, likely involved in transporting Russian oil, sank off the coast of Senegal. Oil refineries and oil depots in Russia and the occupied Ukrainian territories have also been repeatedly attacked. In turn, the AFRF continues to disable Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, causing daily power outages across the country. 

The AFRF continue to attack Ukrainian settlements with cruise missiles, aerial bombs, and kamikaze drones. In November, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, Lviv, Ternopil, Dnipro, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Vyshhorod, Bila Tserkva, Pavlohrad, Kamianske, Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Chuhuiv, Brovary, Romny, and other settlements were targeted. On the night of 25 November, at least six Russian drones entered Moldovan airspace, and one crashed into a residential building. 

In November, several more war crimes were recorded, including the shooting of war prisoners and the killing of civilians trying to evacuate the active combat zone. 

Russia is developing guided aerial bombs (GABs) that can travel up to 200 km. However, approximately 100 GABs were destroyed in the autumn of 2025, prompting the Ukrainian army to test new means of intercepting them. In November, a Ukrainian-made drone interceptor destroyed a modernized Shahed-type jet-powered strike drone for the first time. 

In November, Ukraine managed to return the bodies of 1,000 fallen defenders. There were no prisoner-of-war exchanges, but 31 Ukrainian civilians who had previously been held in Belarus were also returned. 

By decree of President Vladimir Putin, the temporarily occupied territories of the Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk regions were officially annexed to the Southern Military District of the Russian Federation, which includes Crimea and Sevastopol. The local population in these territories is expected to be mobilized to participate in hostilities against Ukraine. 

Russia is pursuing a systematic policy of genocide against Ukrainian children. As of late November, the Prosecutor General’s Office of Ukraine reported that more than 202,000 war crimes and 23,600 crimes against national security had been documented. Of those, 2,279 children were affected, and 673 have died. The Office of the Prosecutor General and the Security Service of Ukraine are investigating the systematic deportation of children, including their forced displacement, illegal “adoptions”, changes in legislation, and the existence of a network of “re-education” camps. 22 individuals have already been notified of the suspicion against them. Ukraine continues to bring back children, including those who were held under duress, tortured, or had their families taken away. Russia is taking another 400 children from the temporarily occupied territories under the guise of “cultural exchanges”, thereby carrying out controlled displacement and exerting ideological influence without supervision. The occupiers are establishing labour camps for teenagers in Henichesk and forcing them to work and participate in propaganda campaigns. Meanwhile, in Melitopol, schoolchildren are learning to assemble combat drones, and kindergartens are being militarized by adopting Russian “education” standards. In Berdiansk, medical college students are being recruited into the pseudo-rescue unit “Bars-85,” which is effectively preparing young people to work on the front lines. These actions demonstrate the Russian Federation’s consistent policy of deportation, russification, militarization, and intimidation of children. This policy aims to destroy the Ukrainian identity and draw minors into the military machine of the aggressor state. 

The Russian Federation is waging a targeted war against Ukrainian cultural heritage. As a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, 1,612 cultural heritage sites and 2,427 cultural infrastructure facilities in 18 regions have been destroyed or damaged. The Office of the Prosecutor General has documented 1,553 damaged monuments, including UNESCO sites and historic buildings in Odesa that are regularly targeted by missiles, particularly Onyx and Kinzhal missiles. Some 670,000 exhibits have been evacuated from museums, yet losses continue. The Main Intelligence Directorate has released data on 1,233 works stolen from Kherson Art Museum that were illegally transported to Crimea and the Russian Federation. Since the invasion began, 238 artists and 119 media workers have been killed, highlighting the widespread destruction of the cultural elite and the deliberate attacks on freedom of speech. 

The environment in Ukraine is suffering massive losses due to the actions of the Russian Federation. In the temporarily occupied Luhansk region, the cost of environmental damage has exceeded ₴770 billion. Fires and pollution have destroyed forests, soil, and water resources. In Crimea, occupying forces are cutting down forests on a massive scale under the guise of “investment,” destroying hundreds of hectares of oak and hornbeam forests to make way for construction projects. Over 600 methane emissions have been recorded off the peninsula’s coast due to Russian drilling and military activities, posing a risk of a large-scale disaster in the Black Sea. In the south, the Kinburn Spit has virtually disappeared, Askania-Nova has been damaged, and thousands of marine mammals have died. 

Despite the war, Ukraine is ensuring food stability, restoring land, and preparing for next year’s harvest. Ukrainian farmers have harvested over 52.5 million tons of grain and 17 million tons of oilseeds. They have completed harvesting 89% of the land, which is sufficient for domestic needs and stable exports. Nine regions have finished sowing winter crops on over 6.4 million hectares, laying the foundation for the 2026 harvest. Under the state demining compensation program, 370 hectares of agricultural land were cleared in October alone. At COP30, Ukraine announced plans to file a lawsuit against Russia, seeking $43.8 billion in compensation for climate damage caused by the war, based on internationally recognized mechanisms and data on emissions. 

Russia is expanding its system of political repression by fabricating cases against Ukrainians, Crimean Tatars, and residents of occupied Crimea. In Krasnodar, Ukrainian citizen Yan Haupt was detained and charged with fabricated accusations of “terrorism” and included in the list of “extremists.” In Crimea, 8 more Ukrainian citizens were arrested for alleged “treason”. Since 2022, Russia has detained 70 people for “participating in the Noman Çelebicihan Battalion”, some of whom were forced to confess using fake evidence. In total, 473 people have become political prisoners since the beginning of the occupation, including 268 Crimean Tatars.  

The Russian occupation regime is intensifying its repressive practices and the militarization of the population in the temporarily occupied territories (TOT). The Russian Red Cross in the TOT is participating  in the militarization of children by holding weapons collection competitions and collaborating with the Young Army Cadets National Movement. President V. Putin has approved   a strategy that extends to 2036 and envisions the participation of 2.5 million Ukrainians from the TOT in “all-Russian events” and the expansion of propaganda. The Kremlin is launching  a russification program to form a homogeneous “Russian identity” and integrate the occupied regions into the Russian Federation. In Mariupol, military forces are conducting the most extensive purges since 2023 to establish complete control over population movement. A new wave of forced mobilization under the guise of a “reserve” has begun  in the Luhansk region. The occupiers are launching  mobile teams for forced passportization, pressuring the elderly and people with limited mobility. In Crimea, a militarized corps of “administrators” is being formed  from war participants to replace the civilian administration with a vertical power structure. Meanwhile, digital isolation continues  as public sector employees are forced to install the Russian-controlled messenger app “Мах” amid the peninsula’s infrastructure collapse. 

Trump’s plan and the risk of growing mistrust and conflict between political and military leadership. Negotiations on U.S. President D. Trump’s peace plan are exacerbating socio-political tensions in Ukraine. From a national security and defence standpoint, the greatest threat is the growing likelihood of “increased mistrust between the political and military leadership”. Many units view Trump’s Plan as a “surrender plan” and assert that Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers will not abandon Donbas, even if ordered to do so. 

The escalation of Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure has negatively affected the country’s economic growth forecast for 2025-2026 (NBU). According to the NBU’s updated forecasts, real GDP will grow by 1.9% in 2025, 2% in 2026, and 2.8% in 2027. These figures may seem modest, but they reflect the delicate balance between economic recovery and wartime constraints. The NBU’s July forecast expected slightly better performance; however, the October report takes into account new realities, particularly the more intense shelling of energy infrastructure and gas production facilities. According to the regulator’s estimates, this will slow the economy by approximately 0.1 pp this year and 0.2 pp next year. 

Failure to obtain a “reparation loan” could jeopardize the stability of the national currency in 2026. Mykhaylo Demkiv, a financial analyst at ICU investment group, expects a gradual, moderate weakening of the national currency. He forecasts values of 42.4 UAH/$ at the end of 2025 and 44.5 UAH/$ at the end of 2026. “This means a slow devaluation of the hryvnia by about 5-6% over the next 12 months compared to current levels,” he said. The analyst argues that the main reason for this is the current account deficit, which will exceed 14-15% of GDP in 2025-2026 due to a significant imbalance between exports (19-20% of GDP) and imports (about 38% of GDP). “Despite such a large deficit, the NBU will have sufficient reserves to control the currency market thanks to the expected EUR 140 billion reparations loan from the EU. Therefore, the hryvnia will weaken gradually and will not cause discomfort for the population or businesses. Without this loan, the pressure on the hryvnia could be much stronger,” Demkiv believes. 

NBU notes an increasing level of interregional disparities in Ukraine. However, regional variation in inflation has risen sharply since the start of the full-scale war. The intensity of shelling and damage varies across regions, and migration has altered the geographical distribution of consumer demand, capital, and resources. Logistical accessibility in frontline regions has deteriorated. Depending on where people live, different consumer preferences have formed. Additionally, uneven stabilization power cuts in terms of duration and scale have led to significant differences in energy costs for businesses. As a result, geographical price disparities have increased compared to 2021. In 2025, price disparities for services became even more pronounced, with prices differing by almost half in some regions. As before, this is due to the low mobility of service providers and consumers between regions. 

November also saw an increase in the risk of a systemic energy crisis, labour shortages, and logistical barriers to exports:  

Overall, November was marked by a shift from optimistic (after the harvest) to pessimistic expectations due to the escalation of the war. To mitigate this shift, the NBU plans to maintain a 15.5% interest rate and attract $39 billion in aid.

About negotiations, “peace” exclusively on Russian terms. The Russian Federation has not changed its rhetoric regarding the negotiation process or the full consideration of interests. In particular, Russian Spokesman D. Peskov stated that “the number of supporters of a peaceful settlement on Russia’s terms will grow in Ukraine”. This rhetoric continued even before the announcement of Trump’s plan, with Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs S. Lavrov stating that the so-called “denazification is an inviolable condition for settlement”. By the end of November, statements were made that “no concessions to Ukraine are planned within the framework of the current negotiation processes” (Ryabkov), while narratives  within Russia called for “complete demilitarization and denazification”. According to these statements, “four regions will officially join Russia, Crimea will be recognized as Russian territory, Ukraine will reduce its armed forces and abandon plans to join military alliances, the Russian language will be permitted; the Russian Orthodox Church will be reinstated; and neo-Nazis involved in war crimes will be punished”. 

Lavrov points out that Russia’s perception of Trump’s plan could change radically if the peace plan “is stripped of the spirit and letter of Anchorage”, and the Russian leadership constantly refers to “the agreements reached in Anchorage at the meeting of the heads of state” (Peskov). The original version of Trump’s plan is also characterized as a “non-strategic decision” that allegedly lays the groundwork for the future “vulnerability” of the Russian Federation. Among Kremlin propagandists, the peace agreement is viewed not so much in the context of 20th-century values but rather those of the 17th and 18th centuries. During that time, Russia’s imperial borders were established through a long process rather than a single victory, “not in the logic of a one-time final victory” but rather a protracted war with various stages of escalation. 

Against the backdrop of negotiations at the end of November, President V. Putin declared that reaching an agreement with Ukraine was “legally impossible”, allegedly because Ukrainian President V. Zelenskyy had lost legitimacy due to the impossibility of holding elections during wartime. 

“Nuclear threats”, an attempt to escalate. Messages continue to spread about the possibility of using nuclear weapons, particularly against European countries. One of Russia’s ideologues, Karaganov, stated that there is a need to revive the fear of nuclear weapons in Europe. This would require a “limited nuclear strike” on Europe. He claims that “the idea of a preventive nuclear strike on Europe is shared by 95% of the Russian Federation’s military and political leadership”. On 14 November, President V. Putin convened an operational meeting with the permanent members of the Russian Security Council, instructing them to submit proposals for the potential commencement of preparations for nuclear weapons tests. On 22 November, Russia launched  a Sineva ballistic missile from the Barents Sea as part of a strategic nuclear forces training exercise.

Complete denial of Ukrainian civil and national identity. Propaganda outlets are spreading narratives  about the “artificiality” of the Ukrainian language, “forced Ukrainization”, and the need to protect Russian speakers. Amid negotiations in Abu Dhabi on a “peace plan”, Russian propaganda outlets are disseminating Dugin’s claims that “Kyiv is an eternal target”, that “Ukrainians are an infernal caricature of Russians”, and that Ukraine will cease to exist in two years and all Ukrainian cities will become Russian. 

“Regarding the so-called successes of the Russian Federation”. Escalation of hostilities. Shelling of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and Ukrainian cities. The Russian army’s successes in Ukraine are emphasized, and false information is spread about Russian troops advancing and seizing Ukrainian territory. On 21 November, President V. Putin announced that Russian troops had captured Kupiansk, which is not true. Messages constantly promote the idea that Russian troops are “advancing in almost all directions, building on their success” (Gerasimov). 

The Russian Ministry of Defence describes the shelling of Ukraine as strikes against exclusively military targets, including “energy facilities and related infrastructure”. They claim  this is either to coerce Ukraine into negotiations on Russian terms or to “deprive the Kyiv regime of energy supplies to force it to make peace“. However, they fail to mention the suffering of the civilian population as winter approaches, and they are deprived of heat and basic services. “Ukraine had to be brought to its senses. And all this on the eve of winter.” 

The so-called “New historical regions”. Russia is implementing policies to integrate the occupied Ukrainian territories into its political and economic space by using resources and taking measures to control the population. “Donbas and Novorossiya are being integrated into Russian legislation and digital systems.” 

Discrediting the Ukrainian political leadership. Russian officials characterize  President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to Kherson as PR and an attempt to divert attention from failures on the front. Narratives are spreading that the results of the “colour revolutions” are an increase in corruption. Meanwhile, Kremlin propagandists like Fedor Lukyanov claim that the “U.S. may stage” another Maidan in Ukraine to pressure President V. Zelenskyy into making concessions, a “revolutionary squiggle” has appeared. Putin is reiterating his claims that V.Zelenskyy is completely illegitimate as President of Ukraine. V.Putin says, “There is no point in signing documents with the Ukrainian leadership since the head of this state has lost his legitimate status.”