Monthly digest

The Russian army continues to slowly advance in the Donetsk province, having progressed towards the border of the Dnipropetrovsk province, approximately 10 km from the frontline. However, in most areas the pace of Russia’s advance has either slowed or halted, owing to substantial losses of equipment and personnel as well as bad weather. As of the end of November, the total losses incurred by Russia, according to the Ukrainian government, amounted to about 744.000 soldiers killed. 

The Ukrainian army continues to control several settlements in Russia’s Kursk province. Nevertheless, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (AFRF) are pushing Ukrainian troops back to the state border. Ukraine’s presence distracts and diverts elite Russian units from Ukrainian territory, resulting in a reduction of Russia presence/pressure on other areas. Ukraine continues to shell military depots, airfields, and oil depots located in Russia and in Ukraine’s temporarily occupied territories (TOTs), as well as launching cyberattacks on Russian government websites. After of the  decision by several western  governments to allow  Ukraine to use long-range weapons to hit targets on Russian territory, Ukraine has carried out a number of serious strikes, hitting command centres and other facilities of the Russian army, using ATACMS, SCALP and other types of missiles.  

On 21 December, Russia resorted to another wave of escalation, raising the stakes by launching a strike on the city of Dnipro, using a missile that the Kremlin refers to as an intercontinental ballistic missile from a complex called Oreshnik. According to Ukraine,  the missile is from the Kedr complex, which is not intercontinental, but which can still be used for nuclear strikes.  

The AFRF continue to launch strikes on Ukrainian settlements and energy facilities, with cruise missiles and kamikaze drones. In November, the cities of Kyiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Kharkiv, Ternopil, Mykolayiv, Kherson, Odesa, Zhytomyr, Lutsk, Rivne, Kremenchuk, Kryvyi Rih, Kupyansk, Hlukhiv, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove (one of the largest thermal power stations in the Donetsk oblast was demolished) and other settlements were subjected to Russian attacks. Aside from military facilities, critical infrastructure facilities, hospitals, residential buildings, educational facilities, and other civilian objects are shelled. Similarly to previous winters, Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is one of the main targets of Russian attacks. For example, following the attack on 17 November a sharp drop in the generating capacities of Ukrainian nuclear power plants was witnessed, which impacts both the energy and security situation in the country.   

On 8 November, the bodies of 563 fallen soldiers were brought back to Ukraine. On 29 November, it was announced that a further 502 bodies would be returned.  

In November, new cases concerning the execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war were reported. These cases prove that the Russian army continues to systematically violate international humanitarian law. The Ukrainian government is documenting the cases of PoW executed, and keeping the international community updated on cases and numbers. 

Ukraine’s partners have joined the initiative of financing Ukraine’s defence industry to allow it to produce equipment and ammunition by Ukrainian companies instead of production taking place in the EU and then transferred to Ukraine. This initiative has been named «the Danish model» as Denmark is the first country to introduce it. In November, more countries joined this initiative, in particular, Sweden. 

According to the official information provided by juvenile prosecutors, over 2,294 Ukrainian children have been affected by Russia’s full-fledged armed aggression. As of the morning of 19 November, 592 children were killed and over 1,702 sustained injuries of various degrees of severity. 149,217 war crimes and crimes of aggression have been registered. Also, 19,975 crimes against national security have been documented. According to a report published by the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, from 24 February 2022 until the end of October 2024, 12,162 Ukrainian civilians were killed, with 26,919 having been injured. Russia has either deported or forcibly relocated 19,456 children. At the same time, Ukraine has managed to return 1,012 children.  

Russian aggression continues to destroy Ukraine’s historical and cultural heritage. The total number of cultural heritage objects in Ukrainian regions that have been damaged amounts to 1,179. 2,109 objects of cultural heritage have been either damaged or destroyed, with 368 of them (17,45%) completely destroyed. These are mainly cultural institutions subordinated to the Ministry of Culture and Information Policy of Ukraine and other central authorities. The war has claimed the lives of 132 Ukrainian artists and at least 107 people working in the media. 

Since the beginning of Russia’s full-fledged invasion of Ukraine, the environmental damage inflicted on Ukraine is estimated at some 71 billion USD. As a result of shelling and forest fires, an additional 180 million tons of carbon dioxide has entered the atmosphere. Russia has committed over 6,500 environmental crimes. Overall, three million hectares of forest have been destroyed due to the war. 139.000 square kilometres of Ukraine’s territory is contaminated with explosives.  

Russia is causing extensive damage to Ukraine’s critical infrastructure. During more than 2.5 years, Russian missiles and shells have demolished 227 healthcare facilities, and damaged another 1,714. The brunt of these attacks has been borne by hospitals in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Mykolayiv, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Dnipro, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia provinces. Also, 10.000 kilometres of railway tracks and 43 railway station buildings have either been damaged, destroyed or lost. On 11 November, Russia damaged the Kurakhivske Reservoir dam which has lost over 20 million cubic metres of water.  

Russian occupation leads to the illegal use of Ukraine’s resources, inflicting economic damage on the country. From January to October 2024, the Russian occupiers illegally transported 112.000 tons of wheat from the temporarily occupied city of Mariupol.  

Problems with integrating internally displaced persons (IDPs) into new communities has led to IDPs increasingly returning to the TOTs. Approximately 150.000 IDPs have returned to the TOTs, with 70.000 alone, returning to the occupied city of Mariupol.  

Russian occupiers systematically violate human rights. Since the occupation of Crimea, 370 people have either become political prisoners or are subjected to persecution under the so-called ‘criminal cases’. 228 of them are Crimean Tatars. Additionally, 26 cases of criminal prosecution of women have been registered. Russia’s security agencies are stepping up repressive measures against the population of the occupied province of Luhansk. In most cases, the locals are accused of working for the Ukrainian security services, of belonging to terrorist organisations or of financing them, as well as cooperating with other countries. In the past two months alone the Russian occupiers opened 68 criminal proceedings based on the aforementioned grounds in the temporarily occupied Luhansk province.  

Ongoing militarisation of schoolchildren in the TOTs. Members of the National Guard of Russia visited the schoolchildren of the 53rd school. They called on the children to study at Russian military educational institutions. In the schools in the city of  Simferopol, children are being taught how to correctly shoot people. 

Lack of alternatives to the Russian President. According to Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin Spokesman,  ‘Russia’s future President will be the same as Vladimir Putin’. Despite Western sanctions, Moscow is spreading narratives about Russia’s economic growth.  

The new world order as promoted by Russia. Moscow continues to disseminate narratives and messages about the new agenda set up by itself. During his speech at the Valdai Discussion Club,  Putin said that he would not like Russia to return to the path it followed before 2022, claiming this path was associated with a hidden, veiled intervention against Russia, aimed at subordinating it to the interests of some other countries that still believed that they had the right to do so. 

About negotiations and «peace». Narratives are being circulated claiming after Donald Trump’s election, the best diplomatic settlement to the war in Ukraine lies through negotiations with Moscow. Chinese media are sharing quotes which claim that Trump will force Ukraine to cede territories in exchange for peace. On 8 November, Peskov said that Russia is ready for a dialogue regarding the settlement of the war in Ukraine, with the goals of the «special military operation» (SMO),  remaining the same. Also, Peskov denied any information about a telephone call between Russia’s President and President-elect Donald Trump. 

Nikolai Patrushev stated that Russia will not tolerate the presence of non-Black Sea countries in the Black Sea. In Russian official propaganda media, a narrative is being promoted about the so-called «SMO» having been provoked by the West. Overall, Russian propaganda maintains that Russia «is winning both on the battlefield and in the economic confrontation and geopolitical fight». At the same time, according to the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, «a solution to the Ukrainian crisis based on negotiations is possible, if the USA and the West acknowledge that there is no alternative to the peace proposal made by Russian President Vladimir Putin». In Russia narratives abound about the West having to make concessions to Russia, discontinuing support for Ukraine and a willingness to «freeze Ukraine».  

Escalation. The nuclear component. In early November Russia was using rhetoric of mobilisation and escalation, also mentioning nuclear threats. One of Russia’s Orthodox oligarchs, Konstantin Malofeev, spoke about giving Russian missiles to Syria, Iran or Hezbollah so that the negotiations about peace and achieving the goals of the SMO can be started through a show of Russian strength. On 19 November, Putin signed a decree approving a new nuclear doctrine called «The principles of the state policy in the field of nuclear containment». The list of categories of countries and military allies towards which such action can be taken has been expanded. On 21 November, Russia deployed  modern ballistic middle-range missiles (Oreshnik) without their nuclear warheads in Ukraine. On 28 November, during his state visit to Kazakhstan and participation in the Summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, Putin continued to threaten to strike Kyiv with a Oreshnik missile. The Russian President likened a large-scale strike with Oreshnik to a nuclear one, stating that this is only the beginning and that Russia has similar weapons. The number of threats issued towards Western countries continue to grow. Russian propaganda claims that the current geopolitical conflict is limited to, but not fully restricted by, the territory of the former Soviet Ukraine. The strike with Oreshnik attests to the fact that «the entire territory of Europe can be reached with this missile, including London» and that this has to be taken as a warning. Russia has stated that a strike on any object is possible. Vyacheslav Volodin, Chairman of the Russian State Duma, stated that the creation of these missiles is the result of escalation by the USA and the West. The use of these missiles of «retribution» has taken the conflict between Russia and the West to a new level, with the latter having dared take the conflict beyond the current framework. This development has effectively been met with a Russian geostrategic response in the format of a qualitatively new system of Oreshnik. As a result, the conflict may potentially develop into an all-European affair, putting the problem of the indivisibility of regional security on the agenda of European politics.  

Russia keeps normalising the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine. At the meeting of the World Russian People’s Council, Patriarch Kirill claimed that the excessive concerns and speculation about nuclear weapons is not useful from a religious perspective. He added that Christians do not fear the end of the world, rather they are waiting for it. 

The so-called «integration» of Ukraine’s temporarily occupied territories in Russia. Moscow never misses a chance to emphasize that «the inhabitants of Crimea and the so-called Novorossiya had the right for self-determination in accordance with international law and the UN Charter» (a statement made by Putin). The assimilation policy regarding Ukrainian territories captured by Russia continues to be implemented. Putin has announced that centres for popularising the Russian language and literature are to be founded in Donbas and the so-called Novorossiya on the premises of publicly accessible libraries. Narratives are being spread in Russia’s propaganda media, citing alleged members of Trump’s team, according to which «Crimea will be recognised as Russian territory» during the peace talks. Russia is integrating Ukrainian territories, going as far as holding beauty contests in Donetsk where female participants perform in Russian folk costumes. 

Rejecting Ukrainian identity. Moscow insists that the goal of the so-called denazification of Ukraine will be achieved along with the «elimination of the Kyiv regime». Russian media continue to spread narratives about the Russian army having to reach the «historical borders of Russia», which means capturing all of Ukraine.  

About «victories and success gained by the Russian army and losses incurred by the Armed Forces of Ukraine» (AFU). The Russian Ministry of Defence is circulating narratives about the losses and defeats suffered by the AFU against a backdrop of messages about «taking into consideration the actual situation on the battlefield» with a view to starting negotiations on «the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis». Russia claims that in the past week, Ukraine lost approximately 14.000 soldiers on all fronts. Also, there are ubiquitous messages about many Ukrainian soldiers going AWOL, the absence of any AFU successes in terms of defending Ukraine and the inability of the Ukrainian army to wage war against Russia.  

Reduced support for Ukraine from the West. Moscow maintains that the USA has ended its aid for Ukraine in the wake of the presidential elections. Russian media ostensibly spread statements made by American advisors about the fate of Crimea belonging to Russia having been sealed. Other narratives claim that «Kyiv will have to abandon any attempts to recapture the territories it has lost» and that they have become part of Russia.