June, 06-08

The troops of the Russian Federation (hereinafter: Russia) have continued to make advances in the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, and particularly heavy fighting is taking place in the town of Severodonetsk. The onslaughts launched by the army have been strengthened by the manpower provided by the forcefully mobilized Ukrainians.

The Ukrainian troops have lost control over Svyatohirsk town and the mayor of the town has agreed to collaborate with the Russian authorities. Furthermore, towns including Bakhmut and Slovyansk face a significant risk of falling under Russian occupation.

According to the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, and Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council, Oleksiy Danilov, Ukraine is suffering from an ongoing shortage of heavy weaponry significantly weakening its counterattacks.

The militarization of Crimea has continued and Russian troops have deployed new missile divisions on the peninsula.

The risk of a Russian offensive targeting Kyiv has not abated. Russian subversion and reconnaissance groups remain active in the vicinity of the capital and approximately 100 of such groups have been neutralized since February. 

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have continued launching counteroffensives in southern Ukraine, namely in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, and the Ukrainian army has managed to reach settlements located as close as to 15 kilometres from Kherson. According to the mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, the Russian army is prioritising its hold on Kherson even if it means losing its positions and control in the Zaporizhzhia oblast. 

The following locations have been subjected to shelling during the reporting period:

Kharkiv – A shopping mall has been destroyed;

Bakhmut – A school has been destroyed by an air bomb;

Slovyansk;

Lysychansk  – Residential houses, a market and a school have been shelled;

Bashtanka – Residential houses have been damaged;

Hulyaipole – Residential houses have been damaged;

Chernihiv and border regions in the Sumy oblast – A building belonging to the Ukrainian State Border Service has been destroyed and civilians have been forced to evacuate from settlements located close to the border;

Donetsk oblast – A television tower has been hit by an airstrike halting television broadcasts in the territories controlled by the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic. Responsibility for the incident remains unclear.

Ukraine and Russia have both handed over 50 bodies belonging to soldiers killed in combat. Most of the bodies received by Ukraine belong to the soldiers who defended the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol. According to recent reports, Ukrainian soldiers captured in Azovstal and held in Russian detention are being relocated to Russia for trial.

In a recent statement, the Advisor of the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, Viktor Andrusiv, said that the bridge connecting the Crimean peninsula and Russia will be destroyed.

Russian forces and authorities continue terrorising residents living in the Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia. Examples of recent assaults include the abduction of 11 employees of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power plant in Enerhodar, forcing residents to acquire Russian passports, compelling schools to integrate Russian curriculums into their teaching, and introducing the Russian ruble as a parallel or primary currency. In addition to the distress the abduction has caused the employees of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the abduction of experts operating the plant poses a significant threat to nuclear security in and beyond the region.

A referendum regarding Kherson’s accession to Russia has been announced.

263 children have been killed and 478 injured in Ukraine since the beginning of hostilities. Furthermore, 32 journalists have been killed and 16 injured since the start of the invasion.

Russia’s actions in Ukraine continue to threaten and weaken global food security. Ukraine’s second-largest grain terminal was destroyed by shelling in the Mykolayiv oblast and Russian forces are currently transporting grain to Crimea through Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. In the meantime, Russian officials have voiced their support for the creation of transport corridors allowing Ukrainian grains exports in the Black Sea. Despite the offer, experts fear that such corridors would be used as cover-ups for Russian military presence and operations.

A round of sowing has been completed in Ukrainian fields. The area sown this year represents 75% of the land area sown last year.

According to the Ministry of Healthcare of Ukraine, shortages in drinking water, low quality food, lack of food preservation opportunities, and the scarcity of medicines risk causing cholera outbreaks in Mariupol. 

195 000 requests regarding the restoration of damaged property have been filed by Ukrainians through the Diia online portal. Furthermore, more than 540 000 individuals have registered their homes as completely destroyed. 

Ukraine has lost 1,8 billion USD of its national reserves in the past month. As of June 1^st, Ukraine’s economic reserves stood at 25 100,73 million USD. This financial deficit can be explained by the sale of foreign currency, loss of value of the hryvnia, intense military spending, and the need to import goods and services to make up for stalled or destroyed local production. The deficit has also been reflected in the balance sheets of private individuals, especially due to currency fluctuations.  

High and increasing levels of inflation have continued to plague the Ukrainian financial market. According to the National Bank of Ukraine, the inflation rate stood at 17% in May, up 0.6% from April. The World Bank estimates that Ukraine’s economy will shrink by 45% by the end of the year.

In a recent statement, the Prime Minister of Ukraine, Denys Shmyhal, highlighted that the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food is working on solving issues regarding the 23,5 million tons of cereals and oil crops waiting to be exported from Ukrainian ports. The ministry is also looking into the possibility of organising mobile storage facilities that would enable Ukraine to increase its capacity to store crops by 10-15 million tons.

Ongoing hostilities continue posing significant challenges for the Ukrainian meat industry, particularly farms engaged in pig farming. The dire state of the industry was highlighted by the Head of the Verkhovna Rada’s Committee on Financial Issues, Taxes, and Customs Policy, Danylo Hetmantsev, who noted that the majority of enterprises engaged in large-scale pig farming and meat processing are located in combat zones and occupied territories. Such companies include the Agri-Plant Slobozhanskyi, as well as the Myasnyi, Saltivskyi, and Skhidnoukrainskyi meat processing centres coupled and APK-Invest.

No food shortages are to be expected in Ukraine during the summer as per statements made by the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club. 

Russian officials have continued using expansionistic rhetoric while speaking of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. For example, the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, recently published a post on Telegram stating that he supports the extermination of those seeking to destroy Russia. Mr Medvedev did not specify whether his words were meant for Ukraine or the West.

Reports and narratives on Russia’s humanitarian missions in Ukraine are being widely spread in the Russian information space. A recently published article underscored that Russia’s global mission is based on restoration and support, whilst Western actors abuse their hegemonic power. According to the article, the approach of the West will orchestrate the West’s eventual demise. 

As per a statement made by Assistant to the Russian President and Head of the Russian Military and Historical Society, Vladimir Medinsky, Russian territories will continue growing and the current borders of Russia are only temporary. With his statement, Mr Medinsky referred to the vast territories held by the former Russian Empire and the Soviet Union.

Representative of the United Russia party and member of the State Duma, Yevgeny Fedorov, has submitted a bill to the lower chamber of the parliament seeking to revoke the decree adopted by the State Council of the Soviet Union in 1991 recognizing the Lithuanian Republic. The Kremlin claims to be unaware of the bill submitted by Mr Fedorov on Wednesday 8^th. 

Reports regarding the establishment of a transport corridor connecting Russia with Crimea and the newly occupied territories are circulating on Russian news platforms. In a statement made on Tuesday 7^th, the Russian Minister of Defence, Sergei Shoigu, announced the opening of a road connecting Russia and Crimea. Minister Shoighu also noted that water supplies provided by the North Crimean canal had been restored and railway connections are being improved.

Russian authorities have continued publishing statements and making claims regarding the accession of the Kherson oblast to Russia. These statements have been coupled with talk about a referendum and elections planned to be held during the summer or later in the fall. Furthermore, the political leadership of Russia is spreading messages about social payments made to the residents living in the occupied city of Melitopol and in the occupied territories of the Zaporizhzhia oblast. Furthermore, plans to capture the city of Zaporizhzhia have been announced with a promise of making the city the central city of the oblast once its liberation is completed. Similar narratives referring to the process of de-occupying and liberating Ukrainian territories remain widespread in official Russian statements.

A synod of the Russian Orthodox Church took place on Tuesday 7^th confirming the decision to integrate the Crimean dioceses of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate. The Russian media reported on the decision with positive tones. In an official statement made by the Russian Orthodox Church related to the decision, the church emphasised that Ukrainian society fosters extremist sentiments and that the Ukrainian government is pressuring the Crimean Orthodox Dioceses to abide by its policies. 

Russian media sources have continued spreading content highlighting Russia’s financial achievements, including the recent curbing of inflation. Relevant statement was made by Putin at a meeting on the economic situation held on June 7.

Russian authorities have continued to utilize the risk of a global humanitarian crisis to push for their claims and demands. In an interview with the Russian press, President Putin emphasised that Russia’s actions in Ukraine have not hampered the trade of Ukrainian grain vital for international food security, and on Tuesday 7^th, the Press Secretary of the President of Russia, Dmitry Peskov, reiterated the statement. Mr Peskov also underlined that Ukraine should take steps to demine the Black Sea and that Russian officials are currently working on a process to enable the checking of all vessels leaving Ukraine’s ports to ensure that exports are non-military.

In a statement made in Turkey, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia, Sergey Lavrov, ensured that Russia would not use humanitarian corridors in Odesa to further its special military operation – if Ukraine demines the territorial waters surrounding Odesa.

Russian sources have continued to discredit and undermine the Ukrainian army, whilst disseminating reports on the widespread achievements of the Russian troops.