July, 25-27

The Russian Armed Forces are gradually advancing on the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, including such cities as Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Kostyantynivka, Slovyansk, Kramatorsk. On 27 July, 400 shells were launched on Avdiivka, the most intensive shelling of the city since February. Russian troops are making advances close to the Vuhlehirsk power station. However, the Russians have failed to capture large cities in the Donetsk oblast. In large part this is due to a shortage of ammunition and fuel as a result of the Ukrainian army’s high-precision strikes with weapons provided by the West. For example, in recent days an oil depot in Donetsk has been damaged, as well as an ammunition depot in Horlivka. The Ukrainian arms also targets the bases of Russian military units. For example, a military base in Lysychansk was shelled. Russian troops are also attempting to make advances in the Kharkiv direction. 

The Armed Forces of Ukraine (hereinafter AFU) counteroffensive in the Kherson oblast continues. In the last few days a further two villages located on the bank of the Inhulets river have been liberated. The Ukrainian army is trying to secure a foothold on the river’s left bank. On the night of 27 July the key transport route that linked Kherson to the Dnipro’s left bank, the Antonivskyi bridge, was damaged to such an extent that it can no longer be used by road vehicles. A nearby railway bridge was also damaged. These strikes were launched from long-range multiple rocket launchers. Russian units located in Kherson are now cut off from a stable supply of ammunition and resources. This success should speed up the liberation of the right bank of the Dnipro, including the city of Kherson. Currently, the Ukrainian army is not conducting any large-scale counteroffensives in order to avoid unnecessary civilian casualties.

Over the last few days, the cities of Mykolayiv, Kharkiv, Chuhuiv, Nikopol, Kryvyi Rih and other settlements have been subjected to Russian shelling. After the resort town of Zatoka, located in the Odesa oblast, was hit by 13 missiles, 15 recreation centers and 5 residential houses were burned down. Territories in the Sumy and Chernihiv oblast, located on the Russian border, are being shelled by artillery and multiple rocket launchers. 

Occupation administrations continue to terrorize local residents and representatives of local authorities in Ukraine’s occupied territories. Local residents continue to be abducted, mugged and killed. Locals are also being forcibly conscripted into the army as well as being forced to accept Russian passports. In the Kherson oblast, arrangements are being made to withdraw the Ukrainian Hryvnia from circulation. At the same time, Russian military and collaborators are being subjected to attacks in the occupied settlements. 

On 26 July the bodies of 25 fallen soldiers were returned to Ukraine. 

The Ukrainian parliament approved the appointment of lawmaker Andriy Kostin as the country’s new Prosecutor General. Mr Kostin was previously Head of the Parliament’s Law Committee and a member of the Ukrainian delegation in the Trilateral Contact Group in Minsk.

 According to a poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology in July 2022, 84% of Ukrainians say that no territory concessions are acceptable. Only 10% support Ukraine conceding some territory in order to achieve peace and preserve its independence.  

Ukrainian fields continue to burn due to ongoing shelling, resulting in the loss of cereal crops. On 27 July it was reported that some 568 acres of grain was destroyed following a night shelling of the village of Kotlyareve situated in the Mykolaiv oblast.

The Ukrainian Parliament passed a bill (№7548-1) exempting Ukrainian farmers from paying taxes imposed on the import of goods used to store cereal crops and oleaginous plants. This will help reduce the financial burden on the agrarian sector and solve the issue of using temporary measures (bags and sleeves, temporary silage as well as equipment for loading and unloading of grain) for storing cereal crops.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister addressed the leaders of European countries. He stated that “Russian media does not provide an alternative viewpoint, nor do they have anything in common with the freedom of expression. They are part of state propaganda whose main goal is to distort the reality, destroy democracy and the freedom of speech. Do not try to shout them down, just shut them down”. 

According to Yuliya Grishyna, an MP representing the Servant of the People Party and Head of the Parliament Subcommittee on Higher Education and the Committee on Education, Science and Innovations, on 1 September not all Ukrainian schoolchildren will resume school in a classroom.  Some children will need to study online. This applies to those  children who live in areas of considerable danger. It is impossible to prepare the relevant education facilities for the new school year in these areas. 

Naftogaz has stumbled into default. The company failed to pay its debt, accusing the Ukrainian government for this situation.  In the coming days Ukrenergo and Ukravtodor will start negotiations related to the postponement of payment. The default could lead to Naftogaz reneging on its international obligations such as the EBRD loan of 300 million USD, of which 50 million have been received so far.

The Ukrainian government has authorized the State Property Fund of Ukraine to manage 420 state enterprises. They will subsequently be either privatized or liquidated.

The Ukrainian parliament has passed a moratorium on the enforcement of utilities debt. The moratorium will remain in force during the entire period of martial law only in the territories where hostilities have been or are still taking place, as well as those that have been or are currently under Russian occupation.

On 26 July the Russian Federation (hereinafter Russia) confirmed that the Antonivskyi bridge over the Dnipro had been damaged by the AFU. This hampers the Russian military’s logistics. A pontoon crossing will be constructed as a replacement. The Russian Ministry of Defense has launched a ferry crossing between Yeysk and Mariupol to transfer cargo.  The Ministry traditionally informs the public of successes achieved by the Russian army in Eastern Ukraine. However, no further geographical details are provided. 

Russia continues to spread narratives/disinformation about “crimes” committed by the AFU against civilians. The Kremlin is also working on “statutes” for an international tribunal regarding Ukraine, which it claims is Russia’s response to Ukraine’s initiative to set up an international tribunal to prosecute Russia. Moscow continues to spread a narrative about genocide committed by Ukraine against the people of Donbas. According Vyacheslav Volodin, Head of the Russian Parliament, State Duma MPs have suggested establishing a Russian Memorial Day to mourn victims of the war in Donbas.

Clandestine mobilization continues to take place in Russia. The government is spreading information concerning the potential involvement of citizens of Central Asia (Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan) in Russian private paramilitary groups fighting against Ukraine.

Russia’s isolation in the information sphere is gathering steam. The Kremlin has promised to take retaliatory measures following Russia Today (RT) France being banned. It has threatened to take retaliatory measures, including preventing Western media from operating in Russia. In particular, Dmitry Peskov said that Russia would take similar measures, not allowing the Western media to operate in Russia and that there would be no middle ground.

Russia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergei Lavrov, said that Moscow did not assume an obligation to stop the special military operation in Ukraine following the signature of the agreement on Ukrainian grain export on 22 July in Istanbul. The start  of a new “grain operation” has been announced. It will be discussed at the next meeting between the Presidents of Turkey and Russia that is planned to take place on 5 Augustin Sochi.  

A de-facto colonization of the newly occupied territories is being actively implemented. For example, Russia is introducing an exclusively Russian education system in the Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Russia will deliver over 3,5 million schoolbooks to schools in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts alone. In the Kherson oblast Russia sends local teachers to take retraining courses in Crimea. 

In Russia there is talk of the impact of sanctions on trade and the development of cities. For example, the percentage of unoccupied space in Moscow shopping malls could amount to 20-30%. Following the withdrawal of international brands from the Russian market, 12% of shopping areas is now vacant. According to experts, real estate construction in Russia is setting new anti-records. After the first half of 2022 the volume of constructed real estate in Moscow plummeted by 44% compared to the same period last year, having reached the mark of 37,1 thousand square meters, the lowest indicator since 2017, when the figure stood at 15,5 thousand square meters.