August, 02-08

Russian troops continue attempting to reach the administrative borders of the Luhansk Oblast while also advancing on Bakhmut. However, these attempts have so far been unsuccessful. Russian attacks in other directions are less active, which may be explained by the lack of fresh troops and the Armed Forces of Ukraine (hereinafter: AFU) disruptions to logistical networks. Nevertheless, the Russian Federation (hereinafter: Russia) is expected to take a new step on July 15 at an unscheduled meeting of the State Duma to escalate the war, during which a large-scale mobilisation may be announced. Additional measures may also be taken to annex the already occupied territories of Ukraine. 

Thanks to the use of high-precision weapons, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (hereinafter: AFU) continue to effectively destroy Russian military bases, command posts, high-rank offices and ammunition reserves located near Luhansk, Kadiivka, Horlivka, Nova Kakhovka and other occupied cities. In view of this, the Russian army is experiencing significant shortages of ammunition and is decreasing the intensity of shelling in some parts of the frontline. The AFU continues to counterattack in the direction of Kherson, having liberated several settlements. 

Over the last few days, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Mykolayiv and other settlements located in the eponymous oblast, Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, Avdiivka, Kostyantynivka and other settlements of the Sumy Oblast located on the Russian border have been subjected to Russian missile and artillery strikes. At least 47 bodies have been found at the site of a five-storey residential house, which was hit by Russian missiles, in the town of Chasiv Yar, located in the Donetsk Oblast. Since the invasion, the total number of Russian missiles launched on Ukraine has reached 2,960 (excluding artillery shelling).

While taking action to annex the occupied territories of Ukraine, Russia is simultaneously continuing to deport Ukrainians to Russian territories. According to the President of Ukraine, as of today, over 2 million Ukrainians have been relocated forcibly. Their living conditions are unknown, nor are they receiving any aid from international organisations. The Russian Red Cross keeps discrediting the International Committee of the Red Cross by giving cups the image of Putin and Russian symbols as humanitarian aid to refugees. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian government is organising the evacuation of populations living along the frontline to prevent further casualties and deportation should these settlements become occupied by Russia. 

Under a special operation, Ukrainian intelligence units demolished a Russian prison in the Kherson Oblast and liberated 5 Ukrainian inmates. 30 bodies of Ukrainian soldiers have been returned to Ukraine. 

As of July 13, at least 349 Ukrainian children have been killed, with 652 injured. However, these are only the confirmed cases. The real figures may be higher, as search and rescue missions cannot be conducted in the combat zones or occupied territories. 

After the liberation of Snake Island, Ukraine has managed to re-establish control over the logistics in the western parts of the Black Sea, as well as resume grain exportation. International ships have started to dock at Ukrainian ports to ensure grain export. Ukraine is still holding negotiations with Russia (and mediated by international partners) to ensure the security of its grain exportation via the Black Sea. Nevertheless, Russian troops continue to shell and destroy Ukrainian harvests, as well as loot Ukrainian grain from the occupied territories.

Hidden mobilisation continues in Russia. The Kremlin has approved the Governor of Primorsky Krai’s proposal to dispatch its “volunteer battalions” to the war. At the same time, Russian media is promoting narratives about the need to train “volunteers” in every Russian region, who would then be sent to fight in Ukraine. 

Moscow denies any losses incurred by the Russian army, as the AFU uses American weapons. It accuses the US of delivering weapons to Ukraine, claiming that these weapons lead to the destruction of civilian infrastructure. For example, Russia alleges that a warehouse storing mineral fertilisers in the occupied town of Nova Kakhovka was destroyed with US weapons. 

Russia continues to blackmail Western countries by threatening to execute prisoners of war who are now detained in the so-called “Donetsk People’s Republic”.

The beating of a wounded Russian soldier (who was taking a stroll) at a resort in the city of Sudak (Crimea) on the night from July 11 to 12 has attracted public attention in Russia. Official channels claim that the soldier was beaten by Crimean Tatars who were chanting anti-war slogans.  

Anti-Lithuanian rhetoric is on the rise in Russian media. Russia is openly threatening the West in view of the sanctions on the transit of certain goods from Kaliningrad to the EU through the territory of the Lithuanian Republic.  

Russia denies Ukraine’s ability to launch a counteroffensive in its southern regions. The Kremlin claims that the US is interested in the liberation of these territories and seeks to maintain unity with European countries in order not to enter peace talks with Russia. Moscow argues that “by losing its southern regions, Ukraine will lose its statehood”.

A narrative is spreading in Russia that thanks to the decree issued by Vladimir Putin on July 11 simplifying the procedure of acquiring Russian citizenship for all Ukrainians, they are being granted humanitarian benefits. According to numerous statements made by Russian officials, “many Ukrainians are striving to become Russian citizens while Russia is fighting the Ukrainian regime”.