October, 11-17

For the second Monday in a row, Russia launched a massive missile and drone attack on Ukrainian cities, in particular on Kyiv on 17 October. A myriad of drones targeted objects of critical infrastructure, particularly energy infrastructure, while others hit residential houses. For example, a drone destroyed a residential house in Kyiv, claiming the lives of 4 civilians, including a pregnant woman. According to unofficial data, some military objects were also damaged. Nevertheless, 36 out of the 42 kamikaze drones launched on 17 October were shot down. Objects of critical infrastructure in Vinnytsia and other provinces were also damaged.

According to Ukraine’s Minister of Energy, German Halushchenko, about a third of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure objects were disabled on 11-12 October, which raises the question not only about closing the sky, but also about Ukraine’s energy resilience. Furthermore, following the attack on energy objects, the export of electricity to European countries was suspended, which poses a threat to Ukraine’s energy safety. However, experts believe that Ukraine managed to withstand the serious attack on its energy objects on 11-12 October.

Shelling and drone attacks took place during the entire week. Apart from military and infrastructure objects, Russia is also attacking residential houses, educational facilities and other civilian buildings. Mykolayiv, Kharkiv, Lviv, Marhanets, Nikopol, Zaporizhzhia, Orikhiv, Kostyantynivka, Vuhledar, Avdiivka (the city’s central open-air market was hit), Kupyansk (an open-air market came under fire), Zolochiv (the Lviv oblast) and communities in the Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts located on the Russian border were subjected to shelling.

The city of Bakhmut is relentlessly shelled. Russian troops and private paramilitary groups are trying to attack the city. The Russian army is sustaining significant losses. As of 17 October, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (hereinafter: Russia) had lost over 65000 soldiers. The Kremlin is attempting to compensate for these losses by deploying recently mobilized soldiers, including those drafted in Ukraine’s occupied territories.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine (hereinafter: AFU) continue their counteroffensives in the Kherson, Kharkiv and Luhansk oblasts. According to the estimates of Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the AFU, Ukraine has taken the strategic initiative away from the enemy, although the pace of the counteroffensive is currently somewhat slower than in September. However, up to ten settlements in the Kherson oblast were liberated last week alone, with Russian positions constantly attacked. Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a total of 1620 settlements were liberated.

Ukraine is not only working on a roadmap for European Union (EU) membership, Kyiv also aspires to obtain membership of NATO. Among other things, a plan for the restoration of Ukraine’s military and industrial complex after the war is being discussed, as well as the policy of compatibility with NATO in terms of armament.

The humanitarian situation in Ukraine’s occupied territories remains dire. It is becoming increasingly difficult for civilians to flee these territories and reach the government-controlled territories. The only corridor available (through the village of Vasylivka, located in the Zaporizhzhia oblast), remains blocked by Russian troops. Local residents who refuse to collaborate with occupation authorities continue to be killed and abducted. For example, in Kherson the conductor of the Kherson Music and Drama Theater, Yuriy Kerpatenko, was murdered. In Enerhodar, the Deputy Director of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Valeriy Martyniuk, has been abducted. According to some messages, Russian troops have been granted permission by the government to rape Ukrainian women in the occupied territories.

In the liberated Ukrainian territories, residential houses and infrastructure are frequently badly damaged. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian government has already started restoring energy and gas supply in the liberated settlements located along the frontline. Also, for the first time since last spring, railway links between Kyiv and Kramatorsk are restored.

Due to the war, 25% of Ukrainian citizens will be living in poverty by the end of this year. Before the war, the number was slightly above 2%. By the end of 2023, the number is expected to reach 55%.

Three rounds of prisoners of war exchanges took place last week. A total of 162 prisoners were freed, among them 110 women. The bodies of 63 fallen Ukrainian soldiers were also returned

As of 17 October, at least 1233 Ukrainian children were affected by the Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. 423 children have died, with 810 wounded. Over 2500 educational facilities have either been damaged or destroyed due to shelling.

In the liberated city of Lyman, which is located in the Donetsk Oblast, the bodies of Ukrainians that were killed and buried in mass graves continue to be exhumed. As of 17 October, the bodies of 35 soldiers and 152 civilians were exhumed. A torture chamber has also been uncovered in Svyatohirsk close to the city’s Orthodox monastery. Ukraine continues to conduct searches for its dead in the Kharkiv oblast. For example, in the village of Kozacha Lopan, the bodies of two men with signs of torture were found.

The rhetoric of mobilization and isolation is deployed and promoted in Russia, along with narratives of western hostility. The Russian Security Council announced the adoption of strategic planning documents to “counter the subversive work of Western countries”. In parallel, the Russian Orthodox Church is spreading narratives about the downfall of Western culture. Patriarch Kirill said that the closure or repurposing of Christian churches attests to the downfall of Western civilization. According to some messages from Russia, the USA and their allies are changing their tactics in Ukraine by trying to drag Russia into a prolonged war “of attrition”, which means that Russia is fighting the USA and NATO on Ukrainian soil.

Last week Russia conducted large scale attacks on objects of Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. In parallel, on 14 October, while Russia was carrying out large scale attacks on Ukraine, Russian President, Vladimir Putin, said that there was no need to launch massive airstrikes on Ukrainian territories. The Russian Ministry of Defense said that Russia was targeting the energy system of Ukraine, while also claiming that Ukraine’s mobile connection system had been destroyed. At the same time, Russian far-right channels on Telegram have been teeming with messages about the necessity of such airstrikes. In the wake of the missile strikes, headlines such as “How Ukraine is going to freeze” appeared in some Russian media outlets Russian media is also ironically listing the ways that Ukraine could reach energy efficiency, while also emphasizing that “strikes on energy infrastructure objects will force Ukraine to negotiate for peace”.

President Putin has more intensely addressed the topic of peace talks. In Kazakhstan, on 14 October, he said that the mediation efforts of interested countries would be needed should Kyiv “be mature enough” to hold negotiations with Moscow. Putin said that the United Arab Emirates could play the role of mediator. He also said that while negotiations with some of the G20 countries were out of the question, Russia is in constant contact with some other G20 members.

On 11 October, Kremlin Spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said that Russia was effectively and efficiently reaching its goals in Ukraine within the framework of the “special operation”, and that the goals “remain the same, as those elaborated in Putin’s 24-25 February speech”.

In the public information space, Russia continues to deny that troops have carried out crimes in Ukraine (this also applies to the issue of the use of gender-based violence). Russian media claims that fake information is being spread by the West, which is trying to discredit Russia.

Last week there were many messages related to the deepening of military cooperation between Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko and Russia. The Belarusian Ministry of Defense reported the launch of a regional military unit and the arrival of the Russian military in Belarus. It was also announced that 170 Russian tanks and 200 armored fighting vehicles would be delivered to Belarus.

On 14 October, while justifying the need for “partial mobilization”, Putin said “it is impossible to maintain the contact line with Ukraine only with contract soldiers, and that is what mobilization is all about”. He also said that conscription measures would end in two weeks. Nevertheless, Putin is trying to distance himself from the cases of abuse reported during the mobilization process. He added that in the event of such cases, legal action should be taken.

In the Russian information space, the termination of “partial mobilization” is discussed. On 17 October, the Mayor of Moscow, Sergei Sobyanin, announced the end of this process in the Russian capital. In different regions (e.g., the Sakha Republic) the focus has shifted to spreading messages about the additional support provided to the families of the mobilized (psychological and material). Local authorities have been assigned with this task. The amount of financial aid depends on a particular region in Russia. For instance, in the Sakha Republic it is 200.000 rubles, in North Ossetia the sum amounts to 30.000 rubles, while in the Omsk oblast, the Republic of Adygea and Dagestan it is 100.000 rubles. In the Saratov oblast the mobilized receive 50.000 rubles from local budgets. In other regions the local authorities provide the families of the mobilized with the funds for heating their homes or buying necessary equipment. Criticism of the mobilization procedure is being replaced by messages about the social dividends paid to the families of mobilized soldiers.

The rhetoric regarding the integration of “new regions”, i.e., Ukraine’s occupied territories, continues to be adopted. On 13 October, Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, said that the power vertical in the new regions had to be reestablished. On the same day, there were calls for the evacuation of people living in the Kherson oblast. The Russian governor of the Kherson oblast, Volodymyr Saldo, appealed to the Russian government for help with the evacuation of the oblast’s residents to Russian territories. Russian Vice-Prime minister, Marat Khusnullin, said that residents of the Kherson oblast would be provided with free housing in other Russian regions. According to the so-called deputy head of the Kherson oblast administration, Kyrylo Striemousov, the evacuation of civilians would help Russian soldiers “clear” the territory. These calls may mean the evacuation of the families of those officials who have supported the Russian occupation. Some alternative Russian YouTube channels have criticized this decision, which may impose an additional social burden on other Russian regions.

Russia is attempting to “integrate” Ukrainian regions not only into the Russian electoral system, but also into its religious sphere. The Synod of the Russian Orthodox Church incorporated the Rovenky Diocese into its system because of the broken ties with the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate.