November, 01-07

The Russian army continues to advance primarily in the Donetsk oblast, in the Bakhmut direction, where it is sustaining significant losses. 300 Russian soldiers were killed and wounded in the first 4 days of their advance on the village of Pavlivka. Representatives of the 155th brigade of marine infantry of the Russian Pacific Fleet have acknowledged these losses. Heavy losses have also been reported among prisoners recently conscripted into Russian private paramilitary groups. 

The Russian Federation (hereinafter: Russia) continues to conduct large-scale shelling of Ukrainian energy infrastructure, civilian objects, and residential houses. For example, last week the cities of Bakhmut, Kramatorsk, Kostyantynivka, Mariinka, Pokrovsk, Soledar, Lyman, Toretsk, Zaporizhzhia, Marhanets, Nikopol, Kryvyi Rih, Pavlohrad, Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Vovchansk, Mykolayiv, Svitlovodsk, as well as settlements located in the Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts were shelled. In cooperation with energy companies, the authorities in Kyiv are working on a strategy for the evacuation of the capital’s residents in the event of a total blackout that could potentially occur in winter. 

The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to carry out counteroffensives in different directions, in particular in the Kherson and Donetsk oblasts. The Russian occupation administration, along with civilians, continue to be urgently evacuated from the right bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson oblast, including Kherson city itself. At the same time, local civilians are being forcibly relocated from the Kherson oblast, as Russian soldiers are moving in. The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has condemned this development. During the evacuation, a number of boats and other vessels were damaged. This led to at least 10 tons of fuel and oil spilling into the Dnipro. 

In the city of Beryslav, Russian troops blew up high-voltage electric power transmission lines while retreating. This resulted in blackouts throughout the city, in some parts of the oblast, and in Kherson city. 

On 2 November, as a result of the hostilities, the two remaining high-voltage transmission lines connecting the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant with the Ukrainian power grid were damaged. At 11:04 pm, the station was fully disconnected from the grid and was forced to operate on 20 back-up diesel generators. The plant was reconnected two days later. 

Russia continues to infringe on the rights of residents of Ukraine’s occupied territories by preventing them from travelling to government-controlled territories. For example, last week only 906 people were granted permission to leave the occupied territories of 4 oblasts for Zaporizhzhia. It is impossible to leave the occupied territories from any other oblasts, parts of which are occupied by Russian troops. 

As of 7 November at least 1257 Ukrainian children have been affected by Russia’s  full-scale invasion of Ukraine. 430 children have died with 827 wounded.

Prisoner swaps between Ukraine and Russia continue. On 3 November, 107 Ukrainian soldiers from the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other units returned home. On 5 November, a further 19 Ukrainian border guards were also freed, following several months in Russian captivity. 

Experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) completed field inspections at three locations in Ukraine, and found no signs of undeclared nuclear activities and materials. According to IAEA Director, Rafael Grossi, there was no evidence that Ukraine was producing a “dirty bomb” as claimed by the Kremlin. 

After a brief démarche, Russia rejoined the “grain agreements” on 1 November. Moscow had previously announced that it would withdraw from the agreements in response to the damage caused to vessels belonging to the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. However, the Kremlin quickly rejoined the agreements, claiming it had received the necessary guarantees from Ukraine. At the same time, as a result of mediation from Turkey and the United Nations (UN), Ukraine has been able to continue to fulfill its obligations under the “grain agreements”, meaning that ships were departing from Odesa port even during the Russian démarche. This may have brought about the change in Russia’s position. The Kremlin would not have wanted to expose its inability to prevent Ukraine from complying with its obligations. Within the framework of the agreements, a total of 10 million tons of Ukrainian grain has been exported to 43 countries. 

Russia continues to spread narratives justifying its aggression against Ukraine by labelling the war as a battle of good vs evil (Russia being the good). Russia claims that by fighting Ukraine, it is fighting the devil. Such narratives are meant to mobilize Russian society. For example, on 4 November — the Day of Russian Unity, the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, published a post on his Telegram channel, claiming that Russia was fighting for its survival and that “the goal is to stop the supreme lord of hell, whatever name he bears, be it Satan, Lucifer or Iblis”. Meanwhile, Patriarch Kirill said that the “destructive actions of hostile forces” were striving to “separate peoples of the historical Rus” and that “God’s will” was the only way to preserve unity, love, understanding and good cooperation between peoples of the Sacred Rus”. Kirill claimed that Russia is fighting for this. Russia rejects Ukrainian identity, viewing Ukrainians and Russians as one people and historically as part of the “Russian nation”. 

The Kremlin is deploying narratives to mobilize Russian society, warning Russian citizens of the threat coming from the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Information about acts of sabotage hatched by Ukrainians is being spread throughout Russia. Moscow continues dismissing any information about the losses incurred by the Russian army.

In early November, Russian Defence Minister, Sergei Shoigu, accused Ukraine of “nuclear blackmail” and an attempts to produce a “dirty” nuclear bomb. On November 2, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement declaring that in its nuclear containment policy Russia adheres to the principle of the inadmissibility of nuclear war. According to the statement, Russia hypothetically admits that it may “use nuclear weapons” only in response to aggression that is carried out with the use of WMD (weapons of mass destruction) or aggression using conventional weapons, when the very existence of the state is threatened. At the same time, Russia continues “to support and advocate reform of the international security architecture”. 

Russia has accused the United Kingdom (UK) of being involved in the attacks on the Russian Black Sea Fleet base in Sevastopol, as well as acts of sabotage on the “Nord Stream” gas pipelines.

Russia resumed its participation in the “grain agreements” after claiming that Ukraine “has offered written guarantees” that it would not use the grain corridors for military purposes. In an attempt to justify Russia rejoining the grain agreements, the Russian media claimed that it was not “a matter of Ukraine’s written guarantees”, but that of trust shown towards Turkey and the UN as well as an attempt to avoid Russia being accused of contributing to increasing food prices in poor countries. Nevertheless, the Russian media has failed to provide any details about Russia’s future participation in the agreement after it expires on 19 November.

Moscow is spreading messages about the favorable economic climate in Russia despite western sanctions. For example, imported products are being successfully replaced by Russian ones; French cosmetics companies are returning to the Russian market; western sanctions are fruitless when it comes to curbing the sales of Russian oil and gas. The Russian media is also spreading information about the erosion of the EU unity for support of Ukraine. For instance,  it reported that Hungary rejects plans for the EU to co-finance Ukraine, while in traditionally neutral Switzerland, some politicians have stated that Switzerland should not send weapons produced in the country to Kyiv, even through third countries.

Russia has not ceased to inform its citizens of “air raid sirens going off” in Ukraine and the catastrophic situation with Ukraine’s power grids. Russian media usually adds that this is the Russian response to “Ukraine’s attack on the Kerch bridge”. The shelling of Ukrainian civilian objects is presented in the Russian media as “retaliation for Ukraine’s actions”. 

Putin has officially announced that 318.000 Russian men have been conscripted into the army, with 49.000 already on combat missions. A prolonged mobilization is being carried out in Russia. There have been reports of an autumn draft and mobilization in Russian regions, in particular in the Rostov oblast. The Russian media is informing society of the payments received by relatives of the mobilized in Russian regions. The Kremlin continues to reject any losses sustained by its army, in particular those that were killed due to miscalculations of Russian army commanders. For example, according to the governor of Primorsky Krai, Oleg Kozhemyako, casualties among the fighters of the 155th separate brigade of marine infantry that was engaged in combat near the village of Pavlivka (located in the so-called “Donetsk People’s Republic”) have not been as significant as the numbers reported on social networks and by some of the relatives of the soldiers. 

Russia continues to spread narratives targeting leaders of western countries who continue to support Ukraine, which, according to the Kremlin, leads to “a protracted conflict”. Moscow insists on being open for possible peace talks with Ukraine. Putin’s press-secretary, Dmitry Peskov, has emphasized that Russia will try to reach its goals through negotiations. At the same time, Peskov has accused Ukraine of “formalizing its refusal to engage in peace talks in Ukrainian legislation”. The Russian media has quoted the article in The Washington Post, which states that Washington asked Ukraine to demonstrate its openness for peace talks with Russia. Those American experts who are often quoted by Russian media and who are frequent guests on Russian shows, believe that the US has urged Ukraine to conduct negotiations since Washington “has realize the impossibility of Ukraine’s victory”. Generalized messages have been spread about Germans allegedly criticizing Scholz’s for continuing to provide support — including arms — to Ukraine, which would lead to a prolongation of the conflict. The Russian media also continues to spread messages about “protests” against governments in European countries and the UK, which (according to Russians) is due to the energy crisis. Anti-American narratives are being circulated regarding Joe Biden’s potential impeachment following the US midterm elections.