February, 24-March, 24

The invasion by the Russian Federation (hereinafter: Russia) of Ukraine began on February 24^th with rocket strikes targeting Ukrainian territory. During the first days of the offensive, targets largely consisted of strategic military and civilian infrastructure. Since then, numerous residential buildings, more than 560 schools and educational institutions, over 50 religious buildings, over 40 monuments, at least 4 TV towers, and the world’s largest airplane AN-225 Mriya have been subject to shelling.

Recent weeks have seen an increase in the targeting of civilian objects. Towns located along the front lines of the offensive, including Mariupol, Volnovakha, Schastya, and Rubizhne, have been practically destroyed. Cities including Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Izyum, and Severodonetsk have been severely damaged. Civilian infrastructure in Kyiv has also been significantly impacted by shelling.

Estimates of Ukrainian civilian casualties move between 1 000-5 000 killed since the launch of the invasion. At least 2 000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed. Russian losses are estimated to amount to 16 000 soldiers killed, and out of these, 1 351 have been recognized by Russian officials.

Evacuation vehicles have been subject to shelling, resulting in casualties among those attempting to escape conflict zones. Casualties have also been reported among international journalists.

Despite Russian attempts to pressure Belarus to take an active role in the conduct of hostilities, Belarusian troops have not directly participated in the fighting in Ukraine. However, Belarus has offered its territory and infrastructure for Russian troops. This has enabled, for example, rocket offensives carried out from Belarus targeting Ukraine.

Russia has carried out a forced military mobilization in some of the rayons of Donetsk and Luhansk oblast.

Russia has been reported to deploy conscripts as foot-soldiers sent to the front lines.

Since the beginning of hostilities, Russian troops have managed to capture the city of Kherson and a number of other littoral towns along the Sea of Azov. Additionally, Russia has gained control of significant parts of the Luhansk oblast. The administrative center Severodonetsk of the Luhansk oblast and Kramatorsk of the Donetsk oblast remain under Ukrainian control. Both cities have been significantly damaged due to shelling.

Rapid advances by Russian troops towards Kyiv have given way for trench warfare. As of March 24^th, Russian troops have been gradually pushed back from the Ukrainian capital. Ukrainian forces have re- established control over the strategically important towns of Irpin and Makariv located west of Kyiv.

Since February 27^th and 28^th, Ukrainian troops have used drones to launch counterattacks, damaging Russian troops, especially convoys supplying ammunition and fuel. The Russian army has been unsuccessful in destroying Ukrainian aviation and air defence systems.

Despite the lack of a no-fly zone in Ukraine, Russia has not gained a clear hold of the airspace. However, Russian air-strikes have led to massive destruction and numerous casualties in Ukraine.

Despite counterattacks launched by Ukrainian forces and a partial push-back of Russian units from the centre of Kyiv, Russian forces maintain their hold in neighbouring rayons in the north and south-west of the city.

The risk of the encirclement of Ukrainian troops located within the Joint Forces Operation consisting of approximately 50 000 soldiers has not subsided.

Without the possibility to conduct an operation by Ukrainian troops to lift the blockade of Mariupol, the future of the besieged city remains uncertain, despite the resistance and resilience of Ukrainian forces.

Due to the destruction of the bridge on river Desna, Chernihiv runs the risk of losing a transport artery connecting the city with territories controlled by Ukraine.

POLITICAL DIMENSIONS & NEGOTIATIONS

The first round of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia took place on February 28^th in Belarus. Additional in-person and online negotiations have followed. Working groups consisting of members from both parties have been established in order to provide solutions to practical questions, including ceasefires, humanitarian corridors, and exchanges of Prisoners of War (PoW).

Negotiations between the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine and Russia took place in Turkey on March 10^th. Russia reiterated its demand for Ukraine’s complete surrender, thus making a negotiated settlement to the conflict impossible for Ukraine.

The impasse in negotiations has confined ongoing discussions to those related to humanitarian or green corridors providing civilians with a pathway out from besieged cities. Despite ongoing negotiations, the implementation of humanitarian corridors remains a challenge due to continuous shelling.

Negotiations succeeded in reaching an agreement regarding PoWs. The first exchange took place in the Sumy oblast on March 10^th. A larger exchange was held on March 24^th.

Russia has continued to disseminate propaganda and narratives in favour of its role and policies in the temporary occupied territories in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. An example of the scale of Russia’s information campaign is the opening of an office of the United Russia party in the outskirts of Mariupol. The party holds majority in the Russian parliament.

Russian political figures have continued to organize rallies and demonstrations in favour of the invasion in the occupied territories of Ukraine.

Russia’s policies and actions are being investigated as intentional measures aimed at creating a humanitarian crisis seeking to exert pressure on the Ukrainian population and government.

Constant shelling and blockades imposed on Ukrainian settlements have led to large scale displacement. Approximately 13 million Ukrainians have been internally displaced with another 3.5 million seeking refuge abroad. Approximately 400 000 people have been forcefully deported to Russia and Belarus. 44% of Ukrainians have been separated from their families.

As of early March 25^th, 135 children have been killed and 184 injured due to the invasion.

Civilians remaining in besieged and occupied cities have been cut off from access to water, food, and medicine. Civilians are reportedly hiding in basements to protect themselves from strikes.

Alleged war crimes have been reported in Kherson, Kyiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv oblast by Ukrainian civilians,

human rights groups, and reporters. Allegations include arbitrary killings as well as sexual violence.

Reports have been shared documenting the looting of residential houses and homes coupled with the destruction of warehouses storing food.

Pro-Ukrainian activists and local authorities have been abducted and killed in settlements under Russian control.

Despite the fact that Russia is not intent on occupying the territory of Ukraine, Russian forces have undertaken attempts to establish regimes loyal to its political leadership in the territories it controls. In addition, military administrations have been put in place, the Russian currency rolled out, and Russian curriculums integrated into schools in the areas under Russian control.

The yield of the upcoming harvest is expected to plummet. Due to the blockade imposed on Ukraine’s seaports, fears of an international food crisis are mounting. Ukraine and Russia are responsible for the production of a quarter of the world’s grain exports and grain shortages are expected to have devastating effects beyond the warring parties.

Narratives regarding the need to demilitarize and de-nazify Ukraine have been spread by Russia in the temporarily occupied territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblast (TOTDLO), Crimea, and Russia since the start of the invasion. Additional narratives legitimizing Russia’s attack on Ukraine include the prevention of an attack in TOTDLO and Crimea.

The first days of the invasion saw significant information campaigns in Russia spreading news of the fall of the Nazi regime in Kyiv.

The Kremlin has responded to international sanctions imposed on Russia as an opportunity to steer the Russian economy towards further self-reliance.

Russia continues to deny allegations related to war crimes and violations of humanitarian law.

Responsibility regarding civilian victims has been rolled on the Ukrainian army.

During the first weeks of the invasion, Russia remained silent regarding casualties among its troops. Since then, information regarding Russian losses has leaked into regional media and on social networks.

Official, large-scale rallies in support of the attack on Ukraine have been organized in Russia, TOTDLO, and Crimea.

Russian media and sources have been prohibited to refer to the invasion as a ‘war’. The term promoted by Russian sources is ‘special operation’.

Individuals who disagree with the policies adopted by the Russian government are being persecuted under administrative proceedings and administrative cases are being filed against the participants of anti-war rallies. At the same time, support for Putin’s policies has increased and official polls report soaring ratings backing the president.

Several artists and cultural influencers are known to have fled from Russia.

Conditions regarding social welfare and basic needs are deteriorating in Russia. There are signs of distress in the Crimean Peninsula due to price hikes in commodities and the lack of basic goods.

Russian media is spreading information regarding the USA assisting Ukraine in the development of bacterial and chemical weapons as well as news regarding President Zelensky’s departure from the country. These narratives have been supported by the establishment of special committees in the Russian State Duma investigating the alleged laboratories and providing briefings for Russian politicians.