Monthly digest

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (hereinafter: AFRF) and private paramilitary groups continue to mount offensives in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. At the beginning of February, there were increasing reports  about  preparations for an offensive in the Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts. An attack on Kyiv, from the territory of Belarus, seems less likely. In the first half of January, Russian troops managed to take the city of Soledar, located in the Donetsk oblast. Following this success, they shifted their focus to capturing Vuhledar, Mariinka, Chasiv Yar and, finally, Bakhmut. In the Zaporizhzhia oblast, despite an operational reconnaissance force, the Russians have failed to make any advances so far. In the Luhansk oblast, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) made advances in January. However, due to the inclement weather and the Russia being bolstered by new conscripts and equipment, the pace of the offensive was quite slow.

According to Ukraine, as of 6 February, the Russian army lost over 132.000 soldiers. Meanwhile, the process of training those soldiers who were mobilized in the fall is about to end. If they receive adequate equipment and ammunition, they will soon be able to engage in battle more professionally than the conscripts that were sent into battle almost immediately after being drafted.

In January,cities such as Kherson, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Khmelnytskyi, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kryvyi Rih, Hulyaipole, Orikhiv, Nikopol, Marhanets, Kupyansk, Vovchansk, Beryslav, Kramatorsk, Kostyantynivka, Snihurivka as well as settlements of the Chernihiv, Kharkiv and Sumy oblast located close to the Russian border were subjected to shelling. Residential houses are often shelled. For example, last month wanton acts of destruction of apartment buildings (with residents inside) took place in Dnipro, Kharkiv, Kramatorsk.

On 14 January, the AFRF launched another missile and drone attack on Ukraine. A total of 38 missiles were launched with 25 of them downed by the Ukrainian air defense. For the first time, Kyiv was shelled by C300/C400 missiles. This type of missiles had previously been used mainly to attack Kharkiv and some other Ukrainian cities. On the night of 26 January another kamikaze drone attack was mounted (all were downed thanks to the coordinated work of the Ukrainian air defense system). On the same day, the Russians launched 55 cruise missiles on different Ukrainian cities, with 47 of them downed.

Evacuations from Ukrainian territory located close to the front line continues. For example, people are being evacuated from Pokrovsk to Lviv, and from Kherson to Khmelnytskyi. In many settlements in the Donetsk oblast, only a fraction of residents remains. Due to the incessant shelling, the residents of Kherson and other cities in the oblast are fleeing. Only 20% of Kherson’s residents remain in the city.

As a result of shelling and the power outages it has caused, Ukraine continues to be affected by an energy crisis. On 3-4 February, Odesa and other parts of the oblast were hit by a total blackout. With temperatures dropping to below zero, the humanitarian situation is likely to significantly deteriorate. The network of “social resistance” points cannot cope with the needs of a large number of people in the event that vital infrastructure breaks down in large cities. Following the end of the school holidays, many students have started to return to classrooms. Schools are adapting to war conditions by constructing bomb shelters.

Missile strikes topped the list of the problems faced by businesses. Since last October, the number of companies in the European Business Association (whose operations have been affected by missile attacks) has grown from 47% to 89%. Most companies have also registered a decrease in revenues: 29% of companies have sustained a loss of up to 20%. 54% of them have registered a loss of 21% or more, while 6% claim to not have been affected at all. Without power, enterprises, in particular industrial giants, are not able to continue their operations normally. Therefore, the budget of industrial oblasts (such as the Zaporizhzhia) has been affected by a 30-percent decrease.

According to the information provided byjuvenile prosecutors, 460 children have been killed and over 919 wounded to various degrees of severity. 16.222 children are considered to have been deported. The total number of torture chambers uncovered has peaked at 49, with 25 of them discovered in the Kharkiv oblast.

The Russian army has destroyed at least 553 objects of Ukrainian cultural heritage. 234 have already been inspected by the UNESCO. According to the UN, the Russian army has carried out 745 attacks on Ukrainian health care facilities. Ukraine’s infrastructure has sustained damage amounting to 127 billion USD.

According to the Ukrainian police, 1.369 bodies of civilians (killed by the Russians) have been discovered in the Kyiv oblast. 197 bodies remain unidentified. Three hundred people are considered missing. In total, the OHCHR has documented 18 096 civilian victims since the beginning of the full-fledged invasion. As for the Russian losses, the NYT believes that some000 have been killed.

According to the United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, Rosemary A. Di Carlo, Russia shows no signs of ending its war in Ukraine. Russia is advancing from 5 directions, with Russian troops channeling all their efforts into breaking the Ukrainian defenses (and eventually encircling them) near Bakhmut.

Due to heavy losses, Russia has started conscripting convicted women.

According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, as of 31 January, there are 4 million and 823,33 thousand Ukrainians who are currently living in Europe and who have applied for temporary protection, while as of 30 September, 2022 their number amounted to 4 million and 183,84 thousand. Many Ukrainian refugees have also gone to the USA, Canada, and other parts of the world.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has inspected Ukrainian nuclear power plants. No military equipment was found at these plants, debunking the Russian statement about “the presence of illegal and quite hazardous things at these plants”. The head of the IAEA, Rafael Grossi, has called for the creation of a protection and nuclear security zone around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). 1500 of its employees, who refused to take Russian citizenship, have been denied access to the ZNPP. According to a statement made by Enerhodar’s mayor, Dmytro Orlov, ZNPP employees are increasingly abducted, especially those who refuse to collaborate with the Russians.

As one of the most industrialized countries in Europe, some 6 billion tons of liquid waste, is generated by Ukraine’s coal mines, chemical plants and other sectors of heavy industry. In the past 6 months this incredibly toxic waste has been constantly subjected to Russian shelling. The war has had catastrophic consequences for Ukraine’s environment, which has sustained damages in the region of 1,35 trillion UAH.

Six months since the “grain deal” was reached, Ukraine has exported 19.7 million tons of agricultural produce. However, over 30 million tons could have been imported, had the grain corridor been operating normally. According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Infrastructure, Russia is sabotaging the inspection of ships in the Bosphorus, resulting in a queue of over 100 ships. In January, Ukraine’s export of agricultural produce decreased by 25 % compared to December 2022.

The Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights, Dmytro Lubinets, said that Russia does not comply with agreements laid out in the Geneva conventions. Ukrainian prisoners of war have voiced numerous grievances about Russian captivity, saying that it oppresses their dignity and that conditions fail to meet international standards. Moreover, the rights of Ukrainian children (against whom Russia is committing genocidal crimes including from deportation to the creation of children’s torture chambers in the occupied territories) are being violated.

In the Luhansk oblast the employees of local businesses are not being paid where there are employees without Russian passports. Russia has also started evacuating people from the temporarily occupied territories, in particular, the families of collaborators living in the Troitskyi rayon of the Luhansk oblast.

Ukraine continues to be plagued by a precarious economic situation. The inflation rate is now at 26,6%, although it is gradually shrinking. It is expected to decrease to 10% in 2024.

Mobilization rhetoric in society, further militarization of the general discourse. Russian official rhetoric and internal discourse are increasingly flooded by messages promoting further escalation. Kremlin Spokesman, Dmitry Peskov said that “the conflict in Ukraine is escalating, with NATO’s involvement rapidly increasing”. At the same time, Russian official and propagandist discourse dismiss any hints of Ukraine’s victory “on the battlefield”. Moscow continues to threaten to use nuclear weapon against Ukraine, unless the supply of Western weapons to Ukraine halts (according to the speaker of the State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin). On the eve of the meeting at Rammstein in Germany, Peskov said that supplies of western weapons to Ukraine would have major consequences: i.e. escalation of the conflict. Russia is again threatening to use nuclear weapons, particularly if Ukraine attempts to liberate Crimea. Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Head of the Russian Security Council has said that “the whole of Ukraine will be on fire”. Russian society is being rallied in the face of direct threats to Russia. In Moscow, air defense equipment has been spotted. Peskov said that the protection of the Russian capital is the responsibility of the Ministry of Defense.

Deploying historical narratives to justify Russian aggression in Ukraine. During the festivities linked to the Soviet victory at Stalingrad, Russian President, Vladimir Putin spoke about the threats posed to Russia by the West and watershed events in history. He drew parallels between WWII and the role of Russia as a savior of the world in its war against Ukraine. Supplies of western weapons to Ukraine are referred to as “Operation Barbarossa 2.0”. For example, the meeting of the minsters of defense at Rammstein was portrayed as the West launching “Operation Barbarossa-2.0” against Russia. The legitimacy of Russian aggression and war is justified with the help of historical narratives regarding “Russia’s fight against Fascism”. The Kremlin promotes the narrative of Russia’s fight against Nazism or Neo-Nazism. Putin accuses Ukraine of Nazism, as well as carrying out “ethnic cleansing”. Moscow is circulating stories about the achievements of the Russian army. It is also claiming that the West will fight Russia through Ukraine until “the last Ukrainian is standing”. The Kremlin insists that Ukraine has been  exhausted by the Russian army, and that the “West fears the conflict will transform into trench warfare, just like WWI”. Russian propagandists are slowly beginning to refer to the “special military operation” (SMO) as WWI for Ukraine, i.e. the war of artillery and of massive losses.

Promoting anti-Western rhetoric. The Russian information space is full of anti-European and anti-Western narratives. Moscow believes that the West poses a threat to Russia. Russia is playing on various components of the politics of memory, likening “Napoleon and Hitler” to the EU. The Kremlin maintains that despite the pressure, Russia will “restore everything”. Russia is threatening “Paris”, claiming that the resources of the EU countries are limited. Russian news reels contain incessant threats and accusations levelled at the West regarding its support for “the war in Ukraine” by “pumping Kyiv with weapons”. According to Peskov, this proves “the direct involvement” of the West in the war. Russian officials are chastising the incumbent American administration for instigating the war, claiming that “Trump would solve the conflict in the matter of a day, while also claiming hostilities would not have taken place”. In Russian public discourse the war is portrayed as just. The situation is presented as if Russia were the victim of aggression. Moscow is coming up with new ways to justify its war, as well as to rally the population, calling on them to protect their country from danger.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is directly threatening Poland and the Baltic countries. According to Russian propaganda, the actions of these countries will have “long-term consequences”. Russia’s attention has also been drawn to the potential supply of heavy equipment to Ukraine, particularly Leopard tanks. Russian narratives say that his development is proof of the EU’s involvement in the war, the advent of WWIII in Europe and “the escalation of the war on its borders”. Dmitry Medvedev said that the supply of T-72 or Leopard tanks to Ukraine would not save Ukraine. The same messages are used by Peskov who claimed that the tanks would prolong the duration of the “SMO” but would not prevent its goals from being achieved. Russia continues to threaten the West with “WWIII” breaking out. For example, Medvedev claims that that military equipment will not save “the old and feeble West” from further war.

“New territories”. The Kremlin talks about the “reintegration” of “the new territories”. For example, Putin has instructed the Russian government to adopt the social and economic development programs in the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk oblast, to Russian standards. He predicted that “these subjects of the Russian Federation will have reached the average standard of life registered throughout Russia no later than by 2030”.

Demonstrating support for Russia’s position. Both internally and externally Russia is promoting the notion that Russia’s actions are supported by the vast majority of the world’s countries. Russia is intent on “fostering cooperation with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS”. Moscow claims that the EU and the West have discredited themselves. Other countries are referred to as “the world’s majority”. Stories are being spread about the development of Russian integrational projects in the post-Soviet space called EurAsEc.

Ukraine fatigue in the West. Lack of unity regarding support of Ukraine. The Russian media claims that EU countries lack unity for supporting Ukraine.

Narratives are being spread about Hungarians being subjected to pressure in Ukraine and conflicts erupting in Transcarpathia. The Russian media quote the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán claiming that further military support for Ukraine is tantamount to the EU direct involvement in the war. Viktor Orbán’s statement about Germany’s decision to send heavy weapons to Ukraine, brings Germans closer to direct participation in the conflict, has been widely quoted. Moscow alerts its citizens about problems in Transcarpathia, spreading statements made by Ukrainian politicians (of Hungarian origin) about “Hungarians coming under pressure in Ukraine”. Official Russian media quote stories in the Hungarian media which claim that the rights of Hungarians are being violated during Ukraine’s mobilization campaign. Russia is circulating messages about Hungarians being forced to join the AFU since “Hungarians are forced to hide from military recruitment officers in lofts”.

Russian media quote the opinions of German politicians speaking against military support for Ukraine. These opinions are presented by Russian media as playing a major role in shaping EU public opinion on Ukraine.

Discrediting Ukraine and accusing it of war crimes. Russian discourse places responsibility for the present humanitarian and environmental challenges caused by the war on Ukraine. For example, the Russian Presidential Council for the Development of Civil Society and Human Rights has provided international organizations with materials allegedly regarding crimes committed by the AFU. Ukraine is accused of threating the security of the ZNPP. Russia claims that Ukraine “refuses to negotiate the creation of a protection zone around the plant for the duration of 5 months”. The statement was made following explosions taking place close to the plant, whose territory is currently occupied by Russian troops. Russia strongly denies committing any war crimes. The Russian media has been circulating a comment made by Oleksii Arestovych, an advisor to the Office of the President of Ukraine, about the possibility that the Ukrainian air defense system being to blame for the destruction of the residential house in Dnipro (which claimed the lives of 30 people, among them 2 children, with over 70 people being badly injured). Some Russian media outlets claimed that the tragedy in Dnipro was due to a gas leak. In its 14 January Daily Report, the Russian Ministry for Defense confirmed the missile strike on Ukraine, claiming that all of its goals were achieved. However, no further information on the tragedy in Dnipro was provided. Russian state media, such as RIA Novosti and TARS, did not publish a single news item about Russia hitting the residential house in Dnipro. Nor was there any information shared about what exactly happened. There was not a single mention about the destruction of a house. The “Vesti” media outlet, which belongs to the All-Russia State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company holding, followed suit, as did NTV which is owned by the “Gazprom-Media” holding. On 16 January, Peskov said that the destruction in Dnipro was caused by a Ukrainian air defense missile.

Russia continues to dismiss any information regarding the crimes committed by Russians in Ukraine (e.g. Bucha). Instead, the Kremlin plans to hold Ukraine responsible by organizing a tribunal on “disinformation”. Moscow denies carryout reprisals against pro-Ukrainian civilians in the Zaporizhzhia oblast.

Russia’s internal discourse is overflowing with narratives discrediting Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian government. The Ukrainian President is accused of corruption. As evidence, the media quote statements made by international politicians and opinion leaders (Gates). The Kremlin is pushing stories about the Ukrainian government being “the most corrupted in the world”. According to Russian accounts, the world is tired of Zelenskyy and his negative “behaviour” towards the EU. Russia believes that the US has lost trust in Zelenskyy, which can be explained by the support for Ukraine being controlled by Washington. In parallel, Russian officials traditionally accuse Zelenskyy of “begging for weapons”. Medvedev has resorted to insulting comments, saying that the Ukrainian President and “his cronies” are weak and totally dependent on the West. Russian official media promote the opinions of Ukrainian political experts who claim it is necessary to “impeach” Zelenskyy because of his “violations of the Ukrainian Constitution”.

Shelling of civilian infrastructure. Messages justifying the need to keep launching missile strikes on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure are aplenty in the Russian media. The Russian Ministry of Defense believes that “missile strikes” carried out on the “Ukraine’s energy system” are aimed at disrupting the supplies of “Western weapons” and ammunitions for the AFU, as well as preventing Ukrainian military equipment from being repaired. At the same time, coverage of missile attacks on Ukraine has become very rare.

In terms of negotiations, Russia insists on its agenda, while trying to avoid discussing the liberation of “the new Russian territories”, insisting that the goals of the SMO will be achieved. Putin’s new policy and negotiation goals are tied to in obtaining security and stability guarantees for Russia. At the beginning of January, the Russian media began to actively discuss options for negotiations and their geopolitical implications, the protection of Russia’s security and the need for public peace initiatives to appear in Ukraine. A friend of Putin’s, Viktor Medvedchuk (who is currently residing in Russia), has published an article emphasizing the need to conduct negotiations, and that the West must provide security guarantees for Russia. Medvedchuk blames the West for the war. Peskov emphasized the popularity of the article on 16, although leaving the issue of a possible meeting between Putin and Medvedchuk unanswered. In parallel, “Russian experts” have reflected on the potential formation of a “movement for peace” (or perhaps such a movement already exists) in Ukraine. They believe that such a movement already exists (in the form of the opposition) but that its voice cannot be heard in view of “Ukraine clamping down on dissenting voices”. According to another official narrative, the war in Ukraine is not a war but “the protection of Russia’s security”.

Moscow dismisses the possibility of negotiations. For example, on 23 January, Peskov said that “negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv are not possible for the time being, since there are neither de-facto nor de-jure grounds for them”. At the same time, on 23 January, Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov said that Kyiv was supposed to clarify its stance towards negotiations with Russia. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that Russia had never refused to conduct “equitable” talks with the West and the EU, blaming the latter for “pursuing the interests of Washington, rather than its own”. The Russians believe that negotiations will happen as soon as certain forces Europe that support this will appear. Moscow insists that the EU and USA have lost “the culture of diplomacy”. The Kremlin presents the position taken by the Hungarian government as the one that supports peace through its reluctance to supply weapons for Ukraine. Another Russian narrative states that peace should be reached “by peaceful means”.

Achievements of the Russian army. Russia is spreading victorious narratives throughout society. On 13 January, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have taken Soledar. According to the Ministry, this would allow Russian troops to cut off the AFU supply lines in Artyomovsk (or Bakhmut, as it is known in Ukraine). Russian officials refer to the “liberation of Soledar” as a turning point in the war (according to the MP, Viktor Vodolatsky), claiming it put Moscow on the verge of a major victory. Moscow believes its capture of the city is of “geopolitical importance” or could even mean “West’s defeat”. On 15 January, Putin joined in with the string of glorifying narratives, saying that the SMO “demonstrates positive dynamics” and that everything was going to plan. On 16 January, Moscow said that a major victory was achieved over the AFU who were retreating from Soledar in disarray, leaving their weapons behind. According to some narratives, the military initiative is now with the AFRF. Russia also claims that its army has achieved success in the East, near Soledar, Bakhmut and along “the entire front line” in the Donetsk

Mobilization measures. Mobilization measures continue. The Russian government is encouraging the participants of the SMO to keep fighting by offering to double their work experience, prospects for rehabilitation, payments as well as free food for their children.

Further encroachments on rights and freedoms. Reprisals against dissenting voices are growing. Different strata of Russian opinion leaders are becoming engaged in the process of punishing “internal enemies”, “liberals” and those speaking against the war or having left the country altogether. For example, the Russian Presidential Council for Civil Society and Human Rights is currently working out its position regarding proposals to introduce accountably for “various types of traitors”. The Russian State Duma is working on punitive measures for those who have fled the country (confiscation of property).

Denying Ukraine’s identity. Moscow rejects Ukrainian statehood, referring to Ukraine as “an artificial state” or “nobody’s land” according to Victor Orbán.

In January and February 2023, Ukraine’s institutional resilience and the effectiveness of the state’s management wasdealt a blow. On 18 January, the Minister of Interior, Denys Monastyrskyi, his first deputy and a number of senior officials from the Ministry of Internal Affairs perished in a helicopter crash. The Minister’s post has now been assumed by the head of the National Police, Ihor Klymenko. Other staff changes have taken place in several ministries and state institutions. These changes are taking place without the government itself resigning:

Corruption scandals surrounding the Ministry of Defense smack of internal political competition combined with external interference. The incumbent Minister of Defense, Oleksii Reznikov, will probably keep his post in order to maintain stability.

That the acting head of the Security Service of Ukraine (hereinafter: SSU) has been appointed as its permanent head can be interpreted as a positive assessment of the SSU’s activities (it may be connected with numerous investigations of people suspected of corruption and fraud).

The fact that the head of the State Customs Service was fired, and that his successor has not yet been appointed points to an internal political struggle and staff shortage.

The Dismissal of 5 heads of military and civil administrations in Ukraine’s regions, including those located close to the front line, have had an ambiguous effect, since there is a risk of a power vacuum emerging.

The National Bank of Ukraine expects Ukraine’s GDP to increase by 0,3% in 2023, by 4,1% in 2024 and by 6,4% in 2025. For the Ukrainian economy to recover, the blockade of the country’s port must be lifted, which will allow Ukraine to gain 20 billion USD of revenues and incentivize economic recovery. For example, prior to the war some 530.000 Ukrainian export related jobs were guaranteed in the mining and metallurgical complex. It also brought 21-22 billion USD into the state budget