Monthly digest

The Russian army continues its offensive in the Donetsk and Kharkiv region, in particular, ongoing efforts to seize the border town of Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region. The town has suffered a level of destruction, equal to the most badly damaged towns and cities in the Donetsk region. In turn, the Ukrainian Defence Forces are mounting a counter-offensive towards both Vovchansk and Kreminna (on the border between the Donetsk and Luhansk regions).

The Russian army continues its mass bombing of Ukrainian settlements. On the night of 4 June alone, Russian troops launched 47 attack UAVs (46 were shot down) and 53 missile rockets (35 were shot down). Non-stop attacks on the electricity grid infrastructure have led to Ukrainian settlements introducing daily rotating power cuts. The list of towns and cities that were bombed includes Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, Dnipro, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia, Vasylkiv, Chuhuiv, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Novomoskovsk, Selidove, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, as well as multiple border towns in the Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Sumy regions. Apart from the military facilities, critical facilities, residential buildings, post offices and other civilian structures are being targeted, despite international law prohibiting this.

Ukraine is inflicting surgical drone strikes on the Russian fleet (with surface drones) and Russian military airfields (with UAVs). On 6 June, a Russian Project 498 Saturn raid tug was destroyed in Crimea. On the night of 8 June, Russia’s most advanced Sukhoi Su-57 multipurpose fighter jet was struck at the Akhtubinsk airfield in Russia’s Astrakhan region. On 21 June, a strike on the 726th Air Defence Training Centre at Yeysk Airfield, resulted in the destruction of 120 UAVs of different types. Also, Ukraine’s Defence Forces persistently target Russia’s oil refining and military industrial facilities, as well as air defence complexes.

A military mobilization campaign is underway in Ukraine. According to experts, May and June were the most productive months for recruitment into Ukraine’s Defence Forces, compared to previous months of 2024.

According to Ukrainian reports, the overall losses of the Russian armed forces military as of late June 2024 amounted to over 543,000 killed in action, with 33,000 killed in June 2024 alone.

On 25 June, Ukraine returned 90 POW in the POW exchange with Russia. On 28 June a further 10 civilian POVs were returned. Along with a teenager who had been forcefully taken to Russia from the occupied territories. As of today, at least 20,000 Ukrainian children remain missing after being kidnapped and deported to Russia. In addition, on 14 June 2024, 254 bodies of the Ukrainian military killed in action were returned to Ukraine.

According to the official statistics from juvenile prosecutors, over 1975 Ukrainian children were victimised due to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. As of the morning of 1 July 2022, 555 minors were killed and over 1,420 were injured to various degrees. Most of the child victims were from the following regions: the Donetsk region (550), the Kharkiv region (400), the Kherson region (154), the Dnipropetrovsk region (152), the Kyiv region (130), and the Zaporizhzhia region (120). There are 135,038 reported cases of war crimes and crimes of aggression and 17,903 crimes against national security.

Increased shelling by Russia led to forced evacuation. On 28 June, the Defence Council of the Kharkiv region expanded the zone of forced evacuation for families with minors in the Izium, Bohodukhiv, Kupiansk and Chuhuiv districts. During June, 188 children were removed from five settlements in the Lyman Community.  162 minors remain in the Community. As of 30 June, all families with young children left the Toretsk Community. On 5 July, free evacuation will be provided, taking the residents of the Donetsk region to the communities of the Volyn region in Western Ukraine.

Russia is mass-deporting Ukrainian children from Ukraine’s occupied territories. In the early days of the full-scale invasion, Russian officials forcibly removed 46 children from an orphanage in then-occupied Kherson. These children were taken to Russia, where their whereabouts remain unknown. Russian officials insist that removing the children was a humanitarian mission fully compliant with Russia’s Constitution, as at that time, Russia had illegally annexed and assimilated the Kherson Region. Journalists from the Financial Times discovered that in the early days of the full-scale invasion, the Russians kidnapped four children from Ukraine and later put them up for adoption in Russia. Ten children  who had been abducted from the territories of the Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions following Russia’s seizure of  them, were returned home. They were forced to attend Russian schools and every Monday, they were obliged  to sing the Russian national anthem. Erasing the Ukrainian identity of the abducted children is part of Russian President, Vladimir Putin’s state campaign aimed at destroying the Ukrainian nation.

The Russian invaders have been consistently destroying Ukraine’s natural reserves. Russia continues to remove animals from Askania Nova national reserve in the Kherson region, taking them to temporarily occupied Crimea, as well as Russia. During the full-scale war, over 7,214 ha of the Mykolaiv part of the Kinburn spit were affected by fires, with over 180 hotspots recorded via satellite. Vast areas are affected by fires. 60% of the Biloberezhzhia Sviatoslava National Park was destroyed by fires. Parts of the Volyzhyn forest has caught fire several times. The situation is exacerbated by the fact that since the early days of occupation (Kinburn was seized in February-March 2022) the Russians engaged in widespread looting of all the property of the national reserves, including the fire-fighting equipment. According to recent data, over 3,800 buildings were damaged after the explosion of the Kakhovka HPP. The damage to  those buildings that have already been inspected alone amounts to UAH 4.6 billion [~EUR 150 million]. Preliminary estimations of the environmental damage caused by the blowing up  of the Kakhovka HPP dam amounted to UAH 146 billion [~EUR 3.34 billion]. One year on, the Kherson region continues to suffer from the aftermath of Russia’s terrorist attack on the dam. This, devastating act of destruction also caused the desalination of the Soliane Lake.

Russia’s full-scale invasion imposes numerous threats to the Danube River, the waterway through the heart of Europe. Russia continues its atrocious terrorist attacks on the Danube’s infrastructure, including the inter-basin water transportation systems, which undermines the freshwater supplies to the communities in the southern and eastern regions of Ukraine. This causes significant risks for the steady operation of water supply intakes or disabling them altogether.

Russia’s aggression continuously destroys Ukraine’s historical and cultural heritage. Over the 10 years of Russia’s war against Ukraine, Ukrainian museums lost over 2 million artefacts. Since the full-scale invasion, 2,003 facilities were damaged, of which 325 (16.3%) were destroyed completely. 1,080 of Ukraine’s cultural artefacts were damaged due to Russian aggression, of which 121 are of national importance, 879 are of local importance, and 80 cases are recently discovered. Historical and cultural artefacts and sites were damaged or destroyed in 18 regions, with the majority of them being in the Kharkiv, Kherson, Donetsk, and Odesa regions.

An external radiation monitoring station near the Zaporizhzhia NPP (temporarily occupied by Russia) was destroyed, reducing the stations capacity to detect and quantify any radioactive release in the event of an emergency. This shows how security measures at the station are continuously deteriorating. The station stopped responding on 24 June, and the IAEA staff remain unable to access the site and confirm the damage due to continuous shelling.

Russia continues attacking civilians, including children. In the Kherson community, the Russian military used a drone to drop explosives onto three adults and two teenage girls aged 12 and 15, leading to their

Confidence in institutions. According to a recent survey by the Razumkov Centre, the public institution with the highest level of trust is the Armed Forces of Ukraine (90% of respondents). This is followed by volunteering organisations (81%), volunteer battalions (80%), the State Emergency Service (79 %), the National Guard of Ukraine (75%), the State Border Service (71%), the Church (63%), the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine (61%), the Security Service of Ukraine (61%), public organisations (56.5%), the mayor of the city (township, village) where the respondent lives (51%), the President of Ukraine (50%). Often, the respondents chose to trust the National Police (49% and 43%, respectively), and the National Bank of Ukraine (48% and 42%, respectively).

The winning formula. According to a recent survey by the Razumkov Centre regarding what can be considered a victory, the relative majority (42%) believe that the expulsion of Russian troops from the entire territory of Ukraine and the restoration of the borders as of January 2014 can be considered a victory. Another 17.5% will consider the destruction of the Russian army and the promotion of rebellion/disintegration within Russia a victory. 14% will consider the restoration of the status quo as of February 23, 2022, a victory, 8% – the expulsion of Russian troops from the entire territory of Ukraine, except for occupied Crimea, and 8% – the end of the war, even if the Russian army remains in the territories that were captured since the full-scale invasion (after 24 February 2024).

The IMF has downgraded Ukraine’s economic growth forecast for 2024 and 2025, primarily due to Russia shelling Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. In 2024, Ukraine’s GDP is expected to grow by 2.5% to 3.5%: just a few months ago, the IMF predicted a growth of 3.4%. In 2025, growth is likely to reach 5% instead of the 5.5% predicted in the previous report. At the same time, over the past year, the demand for budget financing decreased by USD 7 billion, to USD 53 billion, as stated in the macroeconomic forecast by the Centre of Economic Research.

Forecasts show that electricity shortages will persist through 2024-2025, and non-critical infrastructure consumers will receive 12-hours of electricity a day. In addition, a 60% increase in household electricity tariffs from June 1, 2024, is expected to encourage a more cautious approach to energy consumption.

Ukraine’s export potential shows moderate growth compared to the preceding year. Thus, in January–May 2024 Ukraine imported USD 27.5 billion worth of goods while exporting USD 16.8 billion worth. For reference, in the first 5 months of 2022, Ukraine exported USD 19.6 billion worth of goods, while in 2023, it was USD 16.5 billion worth.

On negotiations: “The goals are to be achieved”. On the eve of the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland at the level of national leaders, Putin introduced his so-called “Peace Plan” which demands that Ukraine fully withdraw its troops from the so-called “DPR”, “LPR”, the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, and also give up the country’s ambition to join   Furthermore, Russia demands that Ukraine commit to never joining any military alliance, maintain its non-nuclear status, recognise the “DPR”, “LPR”, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions as part of Russia’s territory, and lift the sanctions imposed on Moscow for its aggression against  Ukraine. Putin announced that the Russian authorities are open to negotiations while emphasising the “legal peculiarities” of the situation in Ukraine. However, he stated that Ukraine had a legitimate government, “even Constitution-wise”. Meanwhile, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Medvedev, stated that “Russia’s peace proposal regarding the Ukrainian conflict is temporary, and future negotiations will be held on worse terms for Kyiv”.

“Nuclear threats” and justification for further missile militarisation. There is a surge in statements and discussions, spreading the propagandist narrative on nuclear weapons and Russia’s nuclear doctrine. Putin announced his plans to further develop the nuclear triad as a safeguard for strategic deterrence and preservation of the global power balance.

Putin and other Russian officials claim that  Russia may amend its nuclear doctrine due to threats from NATO. At the same time, the Russian Federation reserves the right to supply weapons to other regions (Putin’s statement in Vietnam). That said, Russian internal propaganda keeps reiterating that Russia is forced to resort to such measures due to escalation and Western powers threatening the Russian Federation. According to propaganda spread by Russian political expert Karaganov, the Russian Federation is fighting against the West and deploying nuclear weapons will help remove the “yoke” of 500 years of “Western oppression”.

Anti-Western narratives and the “security of Eurasia”. While commenting on the terrorist attacks in Dagestan on 23 June, Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov said that “the West is doing everything in its power to inflict a strategic defeat on the Russian Federation.” Lavrov. He accused the EU and NATO states of using “a variety of methods”.

Also, the national concept of Russian foreign policy from 2023 indicates Russia’s desire to transform Eurasia into a “single continental space of peace, stability, mutual trust, development and prosperity.”

In the Russian understanding, the RF’s version of the “security architecture” of Eurasia will not be directed “against anybody”.

On the eve of the Washington NATO Summit, Russian propagandists are spreading the narrative of a “war in Europe” being fomented by the USA, as a way to benefit from strategic weakening of Europe. Parallels are drawn between the present-day EU and the Inter-War Europe of the 1930s.

Enhanced cooperation with Belarus. The Russian Federation has declared further and deeper coordination of Russian and Belarusian foreign policies (Lavrov).

On the Ukrainian territories under temporary occupation. Putin declared that he has no intention to ever return Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia. According to Putin,  this matter is sealed forever, since the residents of the Donbas, as well as the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia region, voted to join Russia.

On the Global Peace Summit. Russian propaganda spreads messages discrediting the Peace Summit, stressing its meaninglessness, and belittling its importance and participants. Medvedev called the summit “Orwell’s Animal Farm ”. They reason that any peace efforts requires the participation of both Ukraine and Russia at the negotiating table, otherwise they are futile.

Discrediting Ukraine’s Russian narratives accusing the Ukrainian leadership of terrorism on Russian territory, and of waging terrorist attacks in Derbent (Dagestan), are widely circulated. That said, the spin doctors equate the shelling of military facilities in Crimea and terrorist attacks in Dagestan, accusing Ukraine and the West of “religious war” and “ritualistic crimes” against the Russian Federation (Zakharova et al.), due to the terrorist attacks being waged on the Orthodox Trinity Day. The information that the Sevastopol beach tragedy was caused by Russia deploying the TOR-M2KM system (one of the rockets fell) is presented by the Russian propaganda machine as a “Ukrainian fake”. In temporarily occupied Crimea and other Ukrainian regions, theses about the support of sabotage and terrorism by the Ukrainian political leadership are constantly circulated. This is also how they present the release of  Nariman Dzhelial, a Ukrainian citizen of Crimean Tatar origin and the First Deputy Chairman of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People who was sentenced by Russia on trumped-up charges of sabotage, to 17 years in prison back in 2021.  He was released as a result of an exchange.

The “legitimacy” of Zelenskyi as the President of Ukraine is constantly questioned, because his term of office as the President of Ukraine expired in May.

Repressions against the Russian language and the Russian Orthodoxy. Russian propaganda is spinning messages about the oppression of Russian speakers, as well as the  Ukrainian Orthodox Church of Moscow Patriarchy (Metropolian Jonatan of Tulchyn and Bratslav and other priests).

On the advances of the “victorious Russian army” and the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. There are constant updates about the advances of the Russian military, with most of that news dedicated to Russia’s efforts in downing Ukrainian UAVs. There are also reports of successful Russian attacks on Ukrainian logistics facilities.

Targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Russian propaganda consistently justifies targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure, blaming the Ukrainian government for the inefficiency of the energy sector due to its inability to improve the situation of energy supplies. Speculations are abound e regarding a significant increase in support for the Ukrainian leadership due to  Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s energy-generating facilities and their destruction by Russian missiles.