May, 30-June, 01

Intense hostilities have continued in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Troops of the Russian Federation (hereinafter: Russia) are currently making their way towards the administrative borders of the Luhansk oblast and have subjected towns in Donetsk oblast to heavy shelling. Towns seeing particularly destructive attacks include Slovyansk and Bakhmut.

Intense urban warfare has taken place in the city of Severodonetsk in the past few days, and more than half of the city’s central square is currently under the control of the Russian army.

According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian army loses 60-100 soldiers in combat every day.  The losses incurred by the Russian army and by the forcibly mobilized residents of the temporarily occupied territories are estimated to be even higher. 

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have begun a gradual counteroffensive in the southern regions of Ukraine. The offensive’s current focus is in the border areas between Kherson and Zaporizhzhia as well as Kherson and Mykolayiv oblasts.

Ukrainian troops have successfully reached the left bank of the Inhulets river located south of Kryvyi Rih. However, Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups have continued their efforts to break through Ukraine’s lines of defense and destroy bridges in order to hinder the counteroffensives.

The blockade of the Ukrainian coast of the Black Sea imposed by the Russian forces continues. The blocked has been reinforced by missile system set up on the Snake Island. 

The following towns and cities have seen intense shelling during the reporting period:

Mykolayiv – Targeting of residential districts 

Hulyaipole – Destruction of approximately 50 residential houses

Lyman – Destruction of a newly built cycling complex unique to Ukraine

Avdiivka

Border regions of the Sumy oblast 

The risk of attacks launched from Belarus remains high. Belarus has started redeploying its troops along the Ukrainian border and constructing fortifications and checkpoints following the establishment of the Southern Operational Command Centre. According to Russian sources, the command centre is to ensure military security in the designated area. The Russian army is also known to be reinforcing its troops in Belarus.

Intense hostilities have continued in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Troops of the Russian Federation (hereinafter: Russia) are currently making their way towards the administrative borders of the Luhansk oblast and have subjected towns in Donetsk oblast to heavy shelling. Towns seeing particularly destructive attacks include Slovyansk and Bakhmut.

Intense urban warfare has taken place in the city of Severodonetsk in the past few days, and more than half of the city’s central square is currently under the control of the Russian army.

According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian army loses 60-100 soldiers in combat every day.  The losses incurred by the Russian army and by the forcibly mobilized residents of the temporarily occupied territories are estimated to be even higher. 

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have begun a gradual counteroffensive in the southern regions of Ukraine. The offensive’s current focus is in the border areas between Kherson and Zaporizhzhia as well as Kherson and Mykolayiv oblasts.

Ukrainian troops have successfully reached the left bank of the Inhulets river located south of Kryvyi Rih. However, Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups have continued their efforts to break through Ukraine’s lines of defense and destroy bridges in order to hinder the counteroffensives.

The blockade of the Ukrainian coast of the Black Sea imposed by the Russian forces continues. The blocked has been reinforced by missile system set up on the Snake Island. 

The following towns and cities have seen intense shelling during the reporting period:

Mykolayiv – Targeting of residential districts 

Hulyaipole – Destruction of approximately 50 residential houses

Lyman – Destruction of a newly built cycling complex unique to Ukraine

Avdiivka

Border regions of the Sumy oblast 

The risk of attacks launched from Belarus remains high. Belarus has started redeploying its troops along the Ukrainian border and constructing fortifications and checkpoints following the establishment of the Southern Operational Command Centre. According to Russian sources, the command centre is to ensure military security in the designated area. The Russian army is also known to be reinforcing its troops in Belarus.

An ammonia pipeline in the Luhansk oblast was damaged by shelling on Monday 30^th. The ensuing leakage was quickly brought under control and did not cause harm or danger to residents.

Shelling has had devastating effects on the environment across Ukraine, in particular in the Khmelnytskyi oblast.

Russian air forces launched a strike on the Azot chemical plant causing the release of toxic nitric acid on Tuesday 31^st , causing enormous damage to the environment. Most civilians were evacuated from the vicinities of the plant and those remaining close to the area were recommended to stay indoors and protect themselves from the toxic gas. 

According to the Head of Enerhoatom, Pedro Kotin, 500 Russian soldiers are currently occupying the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and surrounding areas. The presence of hostile troops and military equipment, including large quantities of explosives, in the vicinity of the plant poses a significant risk to the environment and the staff still operating the power plant.

Russian forces have continued inflicting terror campaigns and hostile acts on the residents of the territories they control.

More than 500 Ukrainians forcibly relocated to Russia are being held in Russian prisons and hundreds of Ukrainians are known to be detained in the temporarily occupied territories. According to reports, Ukrainians forcibly relocated to Russia are being coerced to testify on record against the Armed Forces of Ukraine. These testimonies are being used to back the claims made by Russian officials regarding war crimes committed by the Ukrainian army. 

According to the Ministry of Health of Ukraine,  territories occupied by the Russian forces are seeing an acute shortage of medical supplies and drinking water. The lack of water is feared to lead to outbreaks of infectious diseases during the summer. Furthermore, the Russian forces have utilized the lack of water to force the residents in Mariupol to work in exchange for drinking water. 

Russian troops have deported more than 234 000 Ukrainian children to Russian territories since the beginning of the invasion. More than 243 children are reported to have died and 446 wounded since the start of hostilities.

According to public sources, the Russian appointed Mayor of Melitopol, Halyna Danylchenko, has refused to take on the role of Head of Military and Civil Administration of the city. The decision may be explained by her attempted murder by pro-Ukrainian forces or pressure inflicted by the Russian secret services. 

Russian authorities have continued preparations enabling the annexation of the territories they have occupied in the course of the invasion. Steps taken across occupied territories include the passportization of the local population and the introduction of the Russian ruble as the main currency. Russian forces have also continued expropriating agricultural land and forced teachers responsible for teaching the Ukrainian language to either teach Russian or make way for Russian language teachers. 

The incessant shelling of evacuation convoys has compelled the authorities of the Luhansk oblast to cease evacuation operations. The French journalist, Frédéric Leclerc-Imhoff, was killed close to Severodonetsk city on May 30^th while travelling on an evacuation bus. 

Ongoing hostilities have changed the way Ukrainians regard firearms and the right to own weapons. According to a recent poll on the matter, more than 50% are in favour of the right to carry weapons for personal protection. Support for the right to own and carry weapons and ammunitions has more than doubled since the beginning of the invasion. 

Narratives regarding the plans of several states to disintegrate Ukraine are being disseminated across Russian media platforms. An example of the notion was voiced on Wednesday 31^st by the Secretary of the Security Council of Russia, Nikolai Patrushev, when he made a statement underscoring that several countries are pushing for Ukraine’s partition and that the Ukrainian government, the United States and relevant allies are pursuing policies leading to Ukraine’s collapse. According to Mr Patrushev, an example of these measures is an initiative by President Zelensky to grant Polish citizens special status allowing them, for example, to hold public offices in Ukraine. 

President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, held a meeting with the permanent members of the Russian Security Council on Monday 30^th.

Russian officials have furthered steps to annex the Kherson oblast. Russian-backed authorities of the Kherson oblast made a statement underscoring that the accession of the oblast to Russia will be raised in the near future. The statements made by the authorities in Kherson were supported by the Russian State Duma that announced that referenda regarding the accession of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DLPRs) as well as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts to Russia will be introduced soon, potentially already this summer. Furthermore, the Head of the International Committee of the State Duma and the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, Leonid Slutsky, stated that the Kherson oblast and the DLPRs might join Russia as early as July.

Russian officials have resorted to increasingly militant language in their public statements. Chair of the Federation Council Committee on Defence and Security, Colonel General, and Hero of Russia, Viktor Bondarev, made a statement on Wednesday 1^st emphasising that Russia has sufficient manpower and weaponry to successfully complete the special military operation in Ukraine, regardless of the arms delivered to Ukraine by Western countries.

Numerous messages and reports regarding official plans to seize control of different Ukrainian oblasts are being circulated in the Russian information space. An example of such content is the announcement by member of the Public Council at the Ministry of Defence of Russia and Editor-in-Chief of the National Defence magazine, Igor Korotchenko, in which he highlighted that the third stage of the special operation includes eliminating the units of the Ukrainian army located in Donbas and establishing control over the Mykolayiv, Odesa, and Kharkiv oblasts. 

Official government sources have stated that Ukraine is posing an increasing threat to Russia. This threat has been aggravated by, for example, the continued weapons deliveries carried out by the United States to Ukraine. The sentiment was reiterated by the Press Secretary of the President of Russia, Dmitry Peskov, on Wednesday 1^st when he spoke of a potential attack by Ukraine targeting Russia utilizing American weapons. Following the concerns voiced by Mr Peskov, the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrov, noted that the United States has conducted assessments regarding the arming of Ukraine and has deliberately overstepped reasonable limits in the amount of weapons delivered to Ukraine. 

Russian officials have denied that Ukrainian forces would have made any progress in the counteroffensives they have launched in the Kherson oblast. However, Russian authorities have announced steps to strengthen existing security measures in Kherson and Melitopol following an explosion presumably launched by the Ukrainian army in Melitopol. 

Russian sources have continued to disseminate narratives seeking to discredit the Ukrainian army, including claims accusing the army of committing war crimes and the crime of genocide on its own territory. In line with these claims, the Basmannyy Rayon court in Moscow authorized in absentia the arrest of commanders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine accused of perpetrating genocide. Furthermore, the Investigative Committee of Russia has published information regarding 70 criminal proceedings opened against foreign mercenaries fighting in the Ukrainian army.