Conflict Developments
Russian troops keep undertaking attempts to break through Ukrainian defense on different front lines, mostly in the Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblast. On the other hand, Ukraine has destroyed two Russian boats near the Snake island while also continuing to repulse Russian attacks.
Many Ukrainian cities and towns have been subjected to shelling including Odesa (a missile strike that coincided with the anniversary of the Odesa clashes of May 2, 2014), Zatoka (the bridge across the Dniester Liman has been shelled for the third time), Lysychansk (a gymnasium built in 19th century has burned down to ashes), Rus’ka Lozova (a Russian torture chamber has been found in this newly liberated village), Mariupol (Azovstal steel plant from where civilians are being evacuated), Synelnykove (agricultural objects of the town have been shelled for the third successive day), Orikhiv, Mykolayiv and other settlements.
The risk of the second front line being opened in Transnistria remains high.
At least 3 Russian ships with the ‘Calibre’ missiles on board are patrolling the Black Sea.
The Russian army is expected to mount a new offensive on Severodonetsk, which may lead to the city’s encirclement (as it has been the case with Mariupol).
In case of the aggravation of the situation and further activation of the conscription measures in the Russian Federation (hereinafter: Russia), Ukraine may continue its mobilization campaign at the end of May and beyond.
Humanitarian Dimensions
Local residents of the temporarily occupied territories continue to be terrorized by Russian troops. Russians continue to steal grain and establish occupation administrations.
In the newly liberated territories of the Kharkiv oblast ‘a torture camp‘ has been detected. In the Kyiv oblast 8 mass graves have been found. Ukraine has found out the names of 900 Russian soldiers involved in committing war crimes on its territory.
At least 181 thousand Ukrainian children have been forcibly moved out of Ukraine to Russian territory and the temporarily occupied territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblast.
According to the UN, since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, about 5,5 million people have fled Ukraine.
Today, the first 100 civilians have been evacuated from the Azovstal steel plant. They have already reached Zaporizhzhia. On the premises of the plant there are still civilians and wounded soldiers who continue to be subject to shelling.
Russians continue to steal valuable equipment from hospitals located in the Luhansk oblast. Grain is also being stolen from Ukraine’s southern regions that are currently occupied.
In Ukrainian sea ports Russia is also blocking ships carrying grain.
Hostilities and large-scale destruction may lead to the outbreak of a cholera epidemic in Ukrainian and Russian settlements located close to the front line.
As a result of hostilities, 900 nature reserves in Ukraine are exposed to danger, including 1,2 million hectares of land, which makes up about 30% of all protected areas in Ukraine.
Political Dimentions
In the Ukrainian parliament a new plan of Ukraine’s economic reconstruction after the war has been presented. The plan consists of nine key principles. Also a draft appeal to the American Congress to recognize Russia as a sponsor of terrorism has been registered. The initiative to establish a visa regime for the citizens of Russia willing to enter Ukraine is being actively endorsed. A corresponding petition has been registered on the website of the President of Ukraine. It has already received a sufficient number of votes in order to be considered by the President.
Information Dimensions
Anti-western narratives continue to be spread in Russian information space. Negative information about Ukrainian soldiers and commanders and their low morale is being disseminated.
On May 2 the speaker of the Russian State Duma, Vyacheslav Volodin, called ‘criminals’ the leaders of those countries that deliver arms to Ukraine. On the same day the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergei Lavrov, in an interview to Italian media spoke about Russian new hypersonic weapons, having also said that shelling of Kyiv during the visit of the Secretary General of the UN came in retaliation for Ukraine’s shelling the Donetsk infrastructure. Lavrov also mentioned Ukrainian ‘neo-Nazis’ and the need for denazification of Ukraine. To make things worse, Mr. Lavrov provoked a scandal by saying that Adolf Hitler was partly of Jewish origin.
Russia is putting in a lot of effort to spread information about foreign mercenaries fighting against Russia. Russian officials continue to spread fake information about the Ukrainian army, in particular, about its soldiers using narcotic substances, about ineffective commanders who ‘leave their fighters’ in the lurch and about the havoc reigning among its rank and file.
The Kremlin continues to spread information about ‘humane treatment of Ukrainian prisoners of war’ in Russia and humanitarian activities undertaken by the country.
Russian officials continue to inform Russian society of the continuous success achieved by the Russian army in the war against Ukraine.
The evacuation of civilians from Mariupol is being covered by Russian media which also maintain that some of Mariupol’s citizens wanted to leave the city for Ukrainian territory.
This Ukraine Situation Report is prepared in the framework of the project “Building Resilience in Conflict Through Dialogue” funded by the European Union