May, 27-June, 22

The reporting period saw neither of the Armed Forces of Ukraine nor the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (hereinafter: Russia) gaining considerable military advantages or significant advances. According to analysts, the conflict is slowly transforming into a war of attrition, even if the Russian forces have been able to strengthen their troops by the residents forcibly mobilized to the frontline from the territories under Russian occupation. The Russian army has failed in its attempt to reach the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblast and make the territorial gains sought for.

The month saw Kharkiv transform into a frontline city suffering from constant artillery fire. Other locations heavily shelled during the reporting period include Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, and Mykolayiv oblasts, coupled with territories located on the Russian border in the Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts. An example of the scale of aggression can be drawn from June 20^th, when Russian forces launched at least 14 missiles on the territory of the Odesa oblast.

The threat of a new offensive launched by the Russian Armed Forces from the territory of Belarus has not abated. Attacks against Ukraine from Belarus have continued since the start of hostilities and several reports have documented a massing of troops and artillery in the Belarusian side of the border. 

The Ukrainian army maintained its counteroffensive in the Kherson and Kharkov oblasts. The army is currently 10-15 kilometers from Kherson and has managed to advance towards Melitopol and Izyum. 

Critical and strategic targets damaged or destroyed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the reporting period include:

Oil drilling platforms in the Snake Island

A port in Skadovsk

Several TV towers in Donetsk

Ammunition warehouses in the Kherson, Luhansk, and Donetsk oblasts

Military infrastructure in the Temporarily Occupied Territories of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and the territories bordering Russia

Ceasefire negotiations remain stalled with both parties blaming each other for the impasse. Representatives of the Ukrainian government have continued underscoring that a peaceful resolution to the conflict is the only means to end the war. However, during the course of the month, the Ukrainian government has begun to voice plans regarding an attempt to return the Crimean peninsula under its control by military means.  

Prisoner of war exchanges and the return of the bodies of deceased soldiers have continued. So far, 250 bodies have been returned to both sides, and 9 Ukrainian prisoners and 10 Russian soldiers were freed. According to estimates, 1,500 civilians remain in Russian detention, as well as thousands of Ukrainian soldiers, including foreign fighters who fought along Ukrainian troops. Starting in June, Russia began imposing the death penalty on foreign mercenaries, with recent cases reported from Mariupol. 

Ukrainian charitable foundations supporting aid deliveries for the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been granted the right to purchase heavy military equipment. This decision has been welcomed by the Ukrainian government and army, as it will enable the diversification of logistical chains and secure a steadier flow of weapons. 

The National Council for the Recovery of Ukraine from the War, led by the President of Ukraine and launched in April has formed 23 working groups so far. Despite the progress made, a clear and comprehensive vision and plan for post-war economic recovery and growth remains to be published. 

The lack of trust between the Ukrainian business sector and governmental authorities has resulted in the slowing down of the planning and implementation of recovery initiatives. Several stakeholders have voiced a need for constructive and inclusive dialogues between the two parties, yet no concrete steps towards such exchanges have been taken.

In addition to trajectories for recovery, the Ukrainian economy is in an urgent need of an action plan on how to manage the ongoing economic crisis. Analysts have predicted a catastrophic meltdown of the economy in the upcoming winter if decisive steps are not taken to reverse the status quo.

The Ukrainian oil sector has ceased its functions due to months of missile strikes and attacks on Ukrainian oil refineries and depots.

The Russian invasion has resulted in a 20% decrease in Ukraine’s GDP. According to experts, Ukraine is currently capable of covering only a third of its expenses and delays in international aid have forced the government to issue money, risking skyrocketing inflation.

Ongoing hostilities have widened the already existing social and economic gaps between Ukrainian regions. Furthermore, continued fighting in the southern oblasts has resulted in the lack of products such as buckwheat, pepper and onion in other parts of Ukraine. 

Prolonged hostilities and the trajectory of the conflict transforming into a war of attrition have caused distress and exhaustion among the Ukrainian public. The following factors and questions have been highlighted as sources of anxiety:

Uncertainty regarding the cessation of hostilities and the end of the war;

Continuous risks to the safety of citizens;

Fears related to the breakdown of critical infrastructure, such as electricity and heating, especially in light of the upcoming winter

Concerns regarding the government’s ability to fill its social obligations, such as the payment of salaries, pensions, and social benefits

Uncertainties related to the resumption of schooling and education activities both online and offline for children and students based on the security situation of a particular region.

Russian officials have continued preparing for the official annexation of the territories it occupies, including the implementation of referendums in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Signs of the rolling out of annexation plans include the Heads of Occupation Administrations participating in political events and rallies across Russia, coupled with official visits by Russian politicians to the occupied territories. An example of such an endorsement signalling the realisation of future annexations was provided by the Head of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic, Denis Pushylin, who spoke at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum hosted by President Vladimir Putin in June.

Population movements across Ukraine have remained highly dynamic with some fleeing and some returning to their homes. Returns have been reported especially in liberated and relatively secure cities including Kyiv and Chernihiv. An increasing number of displacements have been recorded in Kharkiv, Severodonetsk, and Odesa. Ukrainian refugees who initially fled to Europe have also increasingly migrated further to the United States and Canada.

The Ukrainian parliament has adopted and proposed several widely discussed laws, including the ratification of the Istanbul Convention, a partial ban on Russian music and literature, and a visa regime for Russian citizens wishing to visit Ukraine. The parliament has demonstrated significant resilience in its ability to continue operations despite the full-scale invasion and revival of political debates on the domestic level.

The European Council’s recommendation favouring Ukraine’s EU candidacy status has been applauded across Ukrainian society. Despite widespread pro-European sentiments, Euroscepticism has been revived due to a perceived lack of support from European leaders manifesting in delays in military and security support. According to estimates, Ukraine has lost more than half of its heavy military equipment rendering international support provided to the army increasingly critical.

The statement made by the former Head of the National Security Bureau of Poland, Stanisław Koziej, regarding the potential of Poland using its air defence to protect the western parts of Ukraine has drawn a lot of attention and debate. Theoretical possibility of organizing Poland`s missile defense over the western regions of Ukraine needs to acquire a practical dimension.

The Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate decided to break its ties with the Moscow Patriarchate in May. In response, the Moscow patriarchate effectively annexed the dioceses of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church located in Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. The potential unification of all Ukrainian Orthodox Christians under one orthodox church are being discussed within Ukrainian society, yet is far from taking effect in the near future.

Only 50% of Ukrainian students are expected to study offline the upcoming autumn semester.  It has been planned to begin a new academic year offline. Significant fears regarding the safety of schools have been voiced across Ukrainian society, including concerns related to the lack of bomb shelters in schools. Almost 1200 schools are now located in the territories currently under Russian occupation. The Russian occupation administrations is known to have forced schools to switch to Russian as a language of instruction as well as to integrate the Russian curriculum into their teaching. 

Russian forces have forcibly relocated over 300 000 children from Ukraine to Russia, and more than 323 children have been killed and more than 587 wounded since the beginning of hostilities. 

Residents continue to be abducted in the occupied territories, with entrepreneurs, activists, and representatives of local authorities specifically targeted. Furthermore, the looting of businesses and the military mobilization of men to the front lines have continued. Confiscated grains, food products, and metal continue to be transported from occupied regions to Russian territories.

Russian forces have either damaged or destroyed approximately 700 hospitals, 160 religious buildings, 30 museums, as well as several sports complexes and objects of cultural heritage since the beginning of the invasion. More than 24 000 kilometres of roads have been damaged and nearly the entire capacity of the oil refining sector devastated.

540 000 Ukrainians have lost their homes due to the war.

The frequency of anti-western narratives spread by high-level political actors across the Russian public space has intensified during the reporting period. Furthermore, the past month has seen the systematic circulation of allegations discrediting Poland, Britain, and the United States.

Arms deliveries provided by western nations to Ukraine have remained a target of heavy criticism and Western countries have been accused of prolonging and aggravating the war.

Russian officials have maintained their stance emphasising Russia’s determination to reach the goals of its special operation in Ukraine. According to the Russian leadership, these goals include the liberation of Donbas, the denazification of Ukraine, and the liberation of specific oblasts.

Russia has continued preparing for the annexation of the newly occupied territories in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. Measures paving the way for the annexation of the territories include the issuing of passports for Ukrainian citizens, introducing the Russian ruble, and banning the use of the Ukranian language in education. The steps have been complemented by statements made by Russian-backed authorities on the will of the residents of these territories to join Russia – even if information and research backing such claims remain scarce.

The Russian media space has framed the ongoing looting of Ukrainian goods, the nationalization of Ukrainian businesses, and the confiscation of grains and foods as part of the humanitarian missions Russia is conducting in the territories it occupies. 

Information regarding losses incurred by Russian troops has become increasingly available. Russian sources have framed reports on such losses as examples of the heroic deeds of those who participated in the special operation. 

According to the Russian political leadership, the measures Russia has taken in the past months have been necessary steps taken to defending Russia’s sovereignty against the West, which is seeking to encroach on the Russian economy, whilst attacking Russian values and statehood. The actions Russia has taken both within its borders as well as in Ukraine have thus been legitimized in public statements as well as in the State Duma as necessary steps countering the security threat posed by the West.

Russian official sources have continued to disseminate information regarding the alleged American laboratories producing biological weapons in Ukraine. 

Official Russian sources have continued to underline the successes of the Russian army, whilst discrediting its Ukrainian counterpart. Ukraine has been, for example, accused of torturing Russian prisoners of war and committing war crimes against its own people. The Kremlin has maintained its stance dismissing all accusations regarding its role in violations targeting civilians in Ukraine. According to Russian officials, all claims accusing the Russian army of violating the laws of war are attempts to tarnish the reputation of Russian leaders. 

Russian sources have spread narratives claiming that Ukrainian combatants have refused to fight with Western weapons and have actively challenged the policies of Ukrainian authorities. 

The Collective Security Treaty Organization has been reactivated in the past month and Russian authorities have taken active steps to deepen their relationships with post-Soviet countries. Even if engagement has been there, members of the Treaty Organization have expressed their reluctance to endorse Russia’s actions in Ukraine and recognize the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics.

Russian leaders have shared statements critical of the potential decision to grant Ukraine EU candidacy status. Statements have underscored the negative impact Ukraine’s potential membership would have on European integration, risking complete disintegration.

Moscow has failed to provide any positive assessment of peace negotiations. The Kremlin goes to great lengths in order to blame Kyiv and the Western countries for disrupting such negotiations while emphasizing that Russia “will put an end to its special operations and negotiations whenever it may see fit”.

The Kremlin has stated that it would be ready to resort to nuclear weapons if Russia would find itself threatened by NATO or Western countries. Whilst highlighting the readiness to resort to nuclear weapons, Russian officials have emphasized that they would refrain from being the first one to resort to such extreme measures of violence. Moscow is also threatening the USA in view of the American policy towards Russia.

There has also been much speculation about 10 Ukrainian defenders of steel plant “Azovstal” who had allegedly “surrendered”.

Russia continues to deny its role in the blockades that have been imposed on Ukrainian ports located on Black Sea. Furthermore, Russian officials have dismissed all allegations regarding their responsibility in the disruptions seen in global food chains due to the blockades. As evidence to back such claims, Russian officials have shared reports on how they have used the infrastructure available in Mariupol and Berdyansk to deliver humanitarian aid and improve the lives of the residents of the cities.

Russian officials have continued to accuse Ukraine of shelling Russian territories located close to border, including settlements located in the Kursk oblast.

The militarization of the Crimean Peninsula has continued and civilians have been subjected to intensified terror campaigns. These campaigns have included arbitrary arrests and home searches. Russia is demonstratively “forging connections” with the newly occupied territories of Ukraine (the Kherson oblast).