June, 30-July, 03

The reporting period saw the army of the Russian Federation (hereinafter: Russia) intensify its attacks targeting the city of Lysychansk, and by Sunday 3^rd, Russian forces had managed to push the Ukrainian army out of the city. In addition to the hostilities seen in and around Lysychansk, the region has seen a concentration of Russian forces and significant destruction inflicted on civilian infrastructure. Recent hostilities have also resulted in grave losses incurred by the Russian forces.

Kramatorsk and Slovyansk have been subjected to constant shelling. Russian forces are expected to attempt to take over the two cities if they manage to capture the Luhansk oblast. 

The Ukrainian army has continued its counteroffensives in the Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. The Ukrainian army was, for example, able to destroy one of the four Russian military bases located close to Melitopol, damage a Russian military train in Zaporizhzhia oblast, shell Russian military warehouses in Mykolayiv oblast, hit a Russian base located near Chornobayivka, and liberate at least one settlement in the Kherson oblast. Furthermore, Ukraine’s large-scale military operation in the Black Sea has forced the Russian army to retreat from Snake Island, loosening Russia’s control over the western parts of the Black Sea. 

The reporting period saw settlements including Kharkiv, Mykolayiv, Zelenodolsk, Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi, Kochubeyivka, Dobropillya, and Avdiivka subjected to shelling. Communities in the Kharkiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy oblasts located on the Russian border have also come under rocket fire. Facilities destroyed or damaged include:

A recreational centre and residential house destroyed in Serhiivka in the Odesa oblast claiming the lives of 21 civilians and injuring 39;

Damage inflicted on gas facilities in the Zaporizhzhia oblast cutting the region off from gas supplies; 

Warehouses storing ammonium nitrate and wheat fields shelled in the Kherson oblast resulting in the loss of tens of acres of potential harvest;

Air raid sirens have been going off in Kyiv since Tuesday 28^th, presumably due to Russia’s attempt to curb any retaliatory attacks related to the targeting of a shopping mall in Kremenchuk. 

Recent statements made by the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, have highlighted his increasing intention to deploy the Belarusian army into Ukraine. Belarus’s open engagement in the war in Ukraine would mark a decisive step in support of the Russian political leadership and pose a significant threat to Ukraine and neighbouring states.

Russian forces and its occupation administration have continued to terrorize residents, activists, and local authorities in the territories under Russian control. Examples of recent threats to the safety of Ukrainians living under occupation include:

Threats regarding the abduction of children in case residents of Zaporizhzhia resist the occupation;

The seizing of the house of the head of the electrical grid company Khersonoblenergo, Ihor Safronov, in an attempt to force Mr Safronov to collaborate;

Eviction of students from their dormitories in Kherson in order to make way for Russian combatants;

The arbitrary detention of almost 400 individuals in Zaporizhzhia;

The issuing of Russian passports for residents living in occupied territories.

According to estimates, 95% of Mariupol does not have access to water. Furthermore, waste collection services remain on hold, which has increased the risk of the spread of infectious diseases. Risks posed to the health of the residents of Mariupol are further aggravated by the destruction of local healthcare facilities.

More than 2000 educational facilities have been damaged in Ukraine since the beginning of hostilities. Out of these, 125 have been completely destroyed.

More than 800 000 Ukrainians have either completely or partly lost their homes.

At least 344 children have been killed and more than 642 injured since the beginning of hostilities. The actual figures for killed and wounded children are expected to be significantly higher. 

Speaking at a press conference held at the Ashgabat airport in Turkmenistan, President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, underscored that the goals of the special military operation in Ukraine remain unaltered. As per President Putin, the ultimate goal is the liberation of Donbas and the protection of its residents. The president also noted that he no longer participates in the planning of the military operation, yet is determined to enable all needed measures to guarantee the security of Russia. President Putin accused the West of aggravating the security situation and of double standards seen, for example, in the West’s attempt to assert itself and speak on behalf of Ukraine in peace negotiations.

The further integration of Belarus into the Russian economic and security landscape has been promoted by President Putin. According to President Putin, the steps taken to integrate Belarus into the Russian sphere of influence have been in response to the pressure inflicted on the two countries by Western nations.

The Chair of the Russian Constitutional Court has called on the Russian society to mobilize itself to resist western influence in the economic, security, and social spheres.  

According to the  Press Secretary of the Russian President, Dmitry Peskov, peace negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian officials are at a standstill due to the decisions made by Western countries to aggravate the conflict in Ukraine. In a statement made on Sunday 3^rd, Mr Peskov underscored that sooner or later Kyiv would have to accept Russian terms, after which negotiations between the two countries would resume.

Scientific articles denying Ukrainian identity and describing Ukraine as an artificial structure created by Poland, Austria, and other Western countries are being spread in the Russian information sphere. The articles have referred to Ukraine’s claims for independence and resistance to the invasion as acts perpetrated by separatists.

Russian sources have emphasized the successes of the special military operation in Ukraine and, for example, the Russian Minister of Defence, Sergei Shoigu, was reported stating that Russian forces have seized control over the territory of the Luhansk People’s Republic. The Chief of the General Staff of the Russian army, Valery Gerasimov, was reported to have visited Russian troops stationed in eastern Ukraine.

The Ukrainian army is being accused of shelling the Belgorod oblast and of using unmanned aerial vehicles in its attacks targeting Kursk. The Russian media has referred to these events as Kyiv’s bloody PR campaigns carried out in retaliation to Russia’s victory in the Luhansk oblast. According to Russian sources, the attacks on its territories have been carried out on behalf of the West. 

High-level Russian civil servants, including Patriarch Kirill, have made statements regarding the situation in Kaliningrad. During his visit to the enclave on Sunday 3^rd, Patriarch Kirill expanded on the reasons justifying Russia’s actions in Ukraine and spoke about the risk of further escalations and threats perpetrated by the West. According to Patriarch Kirill, attempts to reform Russia to resemble foreign cultures and standards would be in vain due to Russia’s unique character. Furthermore, as per Patriarch Kirill, all attacks targeting Russia are due to jealousy and Russia remains innocent in regard to all the allegations made against it in relation to the war in Ukraine. 

Mobilization campaigns have been reported across Russia. An example of ongoing mobilization measures was recently seen in Crimea, where the so-called head of the Republic of Crimea issued a decree creating a call-up committee consisting of grassroots branches enabling the conscription of citizens of the Republic into the Russian military. Furthermore, measures highlighting the ongoing militarization of the Crimean Peninsula have been reported, and on Friday 1^st, images of heavy smoke covering parts of the bridge leading to the peninsula were shared on social networks. The smoke was later explained as caused by a military drill conducted by the Russian Ministry of Defence, the Emergency Ministry, and the Russian National Guards. 

According to the Russian media, blood donation campaigns supporting the special military operation in Ukraine have been launched in North Caucasus. An example of such a campaign was reported to have taken place in North Ossetia on Friday 1^st where an event called Donors for Donbas was held. As per media reports, a delegation of North Ossetian government officials visited a blood donation centre where civil servants donated blood for the Russian army as well as for the civilians of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics.

According to a recent survey conducted by the Levada centre, more than 55% of Russians follow the developments in Ukraine closely and 24% follow the military operation very closely. The figures are somewhat lower to those seen in May. The survey also revealed that 20% of respondents do not support the military operation. Highest levels of opposition were recorded in Moscow and among the youth.