June, 27-29

The troops of the Russian Federation (hereinafter: Russia) have continued their advances in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. The Russian army has attempted to push the Ukrainian forces from Lysychansk and take hold of towns located in the eastern parts of the Donetsk oblast, including Bakhmut and Slovyansk.

According to estimates, 7000-8000 Ukrainian individuals remained in Severodonetsk when Russia took over the town.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine has maintained its counteroffensive in the Kherson oblast, and at least two settlements located in the vicinity of Kherson were liberated during the reporting period. Furthermore, Ukrainian troops successfully destroy at least two ammunition warehouses in the Luhansk oblast with the help of the precision weapons delivered to them by Western allies.

Intense hostilities have resulted in the destruction of the civilian infrastructure in eastern and southern oblasts, as well as across Ukraine. Some of the damage inflicted on Ukraine has been due to the planned and accidental detonation of explosive hazards. Extreme weather events have also triggered some of the unexploded remnants of war remaining in the ground, an example of which was seen in the Kyiv oblast where a thunderstorm is assumed to have detonated an explosive damaging the recently repaired bridge in Demydiv.

The shelling of fields has led to the loss of harvests in various territories. Ukrainian officials have sought to contain fires ignited by hostilities across the country, yet the summer heat has made this difficult, especially in Ukraine’s southern regions.

The reporting period saw the following settlements targeted by attacks:

Dnipro

Kharkiv

Mykolayiv

Ochakiv

Kremenchuk  – shopping mall shelled killing 20 people 

Kryvyi Rih – thermal power station damaged

Bakhmut

Slovyansk

Lysychansk – residents queuing for water targeted

Severodonetsk – thermal power station destroyed

Settlements and territories located on the Russian border

The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky has called on the global community to recognize Russia as a terrorist state. Furthermore, President Zelensky has demanded the ousting of Russia from the United Nations General Assembly and Security Council, due to Russia’s continued disregard of its obligation to protect global peace and security. The Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dmytro Kuleba, followed suit and urged the OSCE to terminate Russia’s mandate in the organization.

Russian officials have continued to urge Ukraine to surrender in exchange for a cessation of hostilities. 

The Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, has initiated a strategic group tasked to improve the coordination of aid provided for the Ukrainian army. The group will consist of representatives of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Ministry of Defence, and representatives of the armies of the United States, Great Britain, and other partners. Some experts see this as a step taken to empower the Office of the President. Owing to the fact that the Office of the President assumes greater powers, it can lead to gradual monopolization of power.

Ukraine is seeking to enhance the energy resilience of the EU by strengthening its export potential to member states.  The initial volume of exports is projected to reach 100 MW.  After this initial phase, a gradual increase in trading capacity will be regularly assessed based on grid stability and security considerations. The Ukrainian energy sector is currently capable of providing exports amounting to 1690 MW. After additional technical measures are carried out, yields of energy are expected to reach 4-5 GW. 

According to the Ukrainian state company responsible for nuclear energy production, Enerhoatom, Russian troops are planning to launch provocations targeting the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia. The provocations are likely to accuse the employees of the plant of keeping weapons on the premises of the plant making the plant and its staff a legitimate target. Furthermore, according to reports, Russian forces have insisted on draining refrigeration pools and shutting down water pumps critical for the security systems of the plant. The acts Russia is carrying out are creating significant threats to the safety of the power plant and sustainability of Ukraine’s national energy system.

Ongoing hostilities, significant interruptions in oil production, and measures maximizing tax revenues have resulted in a clash between the fiscal interests of Ukraine and its international competitiveness in terms of, for example, metal and grain exports. The Ukrainian business sector has, for example, condemned the 70% tariff increases imposed by the Ukrainian Railways as counterproductive. 

The Ukrainian steel and mining companies part of the Metinvest group belonging to Rinat Akhmetov and Vadym Novynskyi, will suspend the operations of two ore mining and processing enterprises located in Kryvyi Rih and Kamestal on July 1. The companies have faced significant logistical and economic challenges since the beginning of the invasion, and the decision to close operations is feared to result in the further deterioration of the social and economic resilience of Kryvyi Rih. Kryvyi Rih is an industrial and metallurgical centre that has had a strategically significant role in countering the Russian invasion.

The Russian occupation administration has continued to target residents and heads of local authorities with terror campaigns and abuse.

Russian officials have continued to take steps to integrate the occupied territories into Russia, including preparing for referendums. According to latest updates, referendums deciding on the accession of the occupied territories to Russia will take place on September 11^th, 2022.

The Mayor of Kherson, Ihor Kolykhayev, was abducted on Wednesday 29^th. Mr Kolykhayev had previously refused to collaborate with the Russian occupation administration.

At least 341 children have been killed and 627 injured in Ukraine since the beginning of hostilities. Actual figures are expected to be significantly higher. 

Prisoner of war exchanges and the return of bodies of those fallen in combat have continued. On Wednesday 29^th, an exchange freeing 144 Ukrainian combatants, including soldiers who fought in the Azovstal steel plant, was organised. The Wednesday exchange followed the freeing of 17 Ukrainian prisoners of war as well as the release of the Mayor of Hola Prystan, Oleksandr Babych, and the Head of the Stanislav Village Community, Ivan Samoylenko. Furthermore, 46 bodies of Ukrainian soldiers have been returned to Ukraine.

The Ukrainian government has established the role of a Commissioner for IDPs to protect the rights of internally displaced persons in Ukraine tasked to coordinate the development and implementation of state policies on internal displacement. The newly established role will be placed under the Ministry for Reintegration of Temporary Occupied Territories and have the level of Deputy Minister. 

Russian sources continue to spread content and narratives regarding Russian humanitarian operations conducted in the so-called Luhansk People’s Republic. Furthermore, timely content has featured reports on Russian enterprises delivering humanitarian aid across the Temporarily Occupied Territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts (TOTDLO).

The Russian media has continued to portray the Ukrainian prisoners of war held in Russian detention in negative light. The negative reporting has been coupled with discussions calling for the launch of judicial processes in the TOTDLO to hold the soldiers alleged of committing crimes accountable. The calls have emphasised investigating Ukraine’s crimes allegedly committed in Mariupol. 

Anti-western narratives are being circulated across Russian platforms warning of the negative impacts of future uprisings in Africa and Asia sparked by the ongoing food crisis. Russian officials have continued to criticize Western countries for disregarding their promises and obligations regarding NATO enlargement. 

The past days have seen an increased level of content critical of the United Kingdom circulated across Russian platforms. The information campaign followed the decision to hold a new independence referendum in Scotland. Russian sources have framed the decision as a stab in the back of UK’s Prime Minister, Boris Johnson.

Russia has announced the launch of an international tribunal tasked to process the crimes committed by Ukrainian troops and decision-makers in Ukraine. The Head of the Investigative Committee of Russia, Alexander Bastrykin, stated that the international tribunal is to consist of representatives of former commonwealth countries, BRIKS, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. According to some rumours, the tribunal is to be hosted in Donetsk. In addition to the to-be legal proceedings, Russian politicians have highlighted the need to conduct legal assessments regarding statements made by Western decision-makers inciting war with Russia and promoting the imposing of a blockade on Russia. 

According to the Russian media, the recent G7 summit gathering global leaders to Germany sent a clear signal of the deep fear of Russia Western states are struggling with. Unlike in previous years, the Russian President was not invited to join the summit, seen as an attempt to boycott Russia. Furthermore, Russian news agencies have continued to spread content highlighting the West’s lack of unity regarding their stance towards Russia and lack of a vision for the next steps regarding Ukraine.

The integration of the occupied territories of Ukraine into Russia has continued in multiple forms:

Measures taken to integrate Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts into the Russian information space have continued. The Moscow-imposed military-civilian administration in Ukraine’s Kherson region informed on its Telegram channel that the activities of law enforcement agencies in the Kherson region will be regulated by Russian law;

A decree integrating Kherson’s law-enforcement units with Russian legislation was issued on Wednesday 29th;

The Crimean telecom operator Miranda started its operations in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts as well as across the TOTDLO;

Russian authorities have simplified the procedures for obtaining Russian citizenship for residents of the TOTDLO, and the State Duma passed a bill exempting the residents from the costs related to acquiring Russian nationality;

Municipal cooperation between the Russian regions and the TOTDLO has seen several development initiatives. These initiatives have featured steps to enhance cooperation in the education sector and collaboration between, for example, towns across the Zaporizhzhia oblast and the occupied Crimea has been strengthened. Russian school certificates are already being issued to students in the Zaporizhzhia oblast.