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June, 13-15

2022

Conflict Developments

Troops of the Russian Federation (hereinafter: Russia) have used significant amounts of military force in their attempts to capture Severodonetsk, in particular the Azot steel plant. In addition, Russian troops have launched intense attacks on several towns located in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, such as  Slovyansk. Russian forces have also continued to mine Ukrainian territories with reports of mines planted on the banks of the Inhulets river that will allow the Russian forces to protect themselves from the attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kryvyi Rih direction.

32 cruise missiles are currently located on Russian ships patrolling the Black Sea. The increased arming of Russia’s Black Sea fleet has been paralleled with the militarization of the Snake Island and Crimean peninsula.

Russian troops are being massed in Belarus, including the deployment of a new Russian aviation unit to the border.

Two gas pipelines have been damaged as a result of Russian shelling in the Zaporizhzhia oblast. Damage inflicted on gas facilities is feared to result in the increased prevalence of gas shortages – especially during the winter. As it stands, Russian forces have disabled significant parts of Ukraine’s energy production facilities with over 90% of wind farms, over 50% of thermal capacities, and 30% of solar energy production facilities damaged. 

The Ukrainian Armed Forces has maintained its counteroffensive near Izyum town in the Kharkiv oblast. Hostilities are currently taking place approximately 10 kilometres from the town.

The Ukrainian army has reported on successful advances west of Kherson and managed to destroy an ammunition warehouse belonging to the Russian troops in Nova Kakhovka, east of Kherson city.

The car of the Head of the Occupation Administration of the Kherson oblast, Volodymyr Saldo, was detonated on Tuesday 14th. The following settlements have been subjected to shelling during the reporting period:

Kharkiv

Pryluky

Apostolove

Dobropillya

Bakhmut – residential houses damaged

Pokrovsk – cars storing humanitarian aid parked close to the city’s railway station destroyed

Severodonetsk – Azot chemical plant sheltering civilians and residential blocks shelled

Lysychansk and rayons bordering Russia in the Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts

Russian forces have reportedly used weapons banned by international treaties in recent attacks in Ukraine. So-called parachutes were deployed in attacks in Kharkiv, resulting in the scattering of explosives rendering the distinction between military and civilian targets difficult. 

64 bodies of the soldiers killed while defending the Azovstal steel plant have been handed back to Ukrainian officials. The return of bodies is likely linked to ongoing negotiations regarding further prisoner of war exchanges to be carried out with Russia. At the same time an exchange of prisoners of war who are alive and who find themselves in captivity has not been held yet, no information is available regarding future exchanges.

Humanitarian Dimensions

Russian forces continue to inflict fear and terror on the residents of the territories it occupies and, for example, the abduction of civilians and the forced military mobilization of men is ongoing. Furthermore, Russian troops and authorities have continued the looting of businesses, including the seizing of Ukrainian grain and agricultural products. The Russian-backed officials in Zaporizhzhia went as far as announcing the nationalisation of all grain products of the oblast. The confiscated grains are currently being shipped to Crimea through the ports of Berdyansk and Mariupol. Russian officials are reportedly planning to start using the Kherson port for similar shipments in the future.

The agricultural sector has accumulated losses amounting to approximately 4,3 billion USD due to the ongoing invasion. 

Russian forces have launched 295 airstrikes on Ukrainian healthcare facilities, destroyed or damaged over 13 museums, and inflicted significant destruction on 400 cultural objects and religious buildings since the beginning of hostilities.

More than 313 Ukrainian children have been killed and over 579 injured since the beginning of the invasion. Current figures are preliminary and are expected to grow as occupied territories are liberated and hostilities continue.

Information Warfare Dimensions

Russian sources have continued disseminating anti-Ukrainian and anti-Western narratives. Recent statements include Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, noting that Ukraine will be wiped off the map within two years, and Deputy Head of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Ryabkov, underscoring that Russia will end the special operation in Ukraine only when it sees fit and once the goals of the operation are reached. According to Mr Ryabkov, the ongoing impasse in negotiations is due to the unwillingness of the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, to find a peaceful settlement to the conflict and the positions taken by Western nations that have made the continuation of diplomatic talks impossible.

Arms deliveries provided by western countries to Ukraine and the economic sanctions imposed on Russia continue to be heavily criticized, and officials have framed the measures as the West’s attempt to impose pressure and exercise power over Russia. 

The Secretary of the Russian Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, was noted underscoring that western countries are seeking to exert pressure on Moscow by continuing the delivery of weapons to Ukraine and aggravating financial pressure through sanctions. According to Mr Patrushev, the measures are counterproductive and will only contribute to the prolonging of the conflict thus leading to more destruction and civilian casualties.

Reports regarding the successes of the Russian forces in Ukraine are being spread by political decision-makers. The Head of the Committee of the Federation Council on Defence and Security, Viktor Bondarev, was reported saying that Ukrainian authorities and troops have been forced to cede Ukrainian territories at a heightened pace, speaking of the inevitable triumph of Russia’s special operation aimed at protecting the Donbas region.

The Permanent Representative of Russia to the EU, Vladimir Chizhov, was reported stating that Poland is seeking to expand its borders into Ukrainian territory in the near future.

Russian media platforms have disseminated positive coverage regarding the statements made by European politicians on the need to resume negotiations. Russian reporting has been supported by claims made by numerous Russian experts highlighting that Ukraine has no other option than to reach a deal with Russia and the terms of such a deal will be dictated by the Kremlin. A similar stance has been seen in Russia’s position regarding the territories it currently occupies. As per Russian officials, Ukraine has no other choice than to recognize Russia’s claims and demands related to the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, Crimea, and the buffer zones in the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv oblasts. 

Russian officials have not changed their position regarding allegations of crimes committed by Russian troops in Ukraine. Recent discussions have laid special emphasis on accusations of sexual violence perpetrated by Russian soldiers targeting Ukrainian women and children. The Permanent Representative of Russia to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, has maintained that no evidence backing the claims exists.

Reports claiming that Ukrainian combatants have refused to fight with the weapons delivered to them by the West have circulated across Russian media platforms.

According to analysts, Russian officials are using the ongoing war in Ukraine to divert the electorate’s attention from domestic challenges. An example of such an approach was provided by the Governor of St. Petersburg, Alexander Beglov, when he urged those criticising local authorities to channel their efforts to counter Ukrainian and Western propaganda instead.  

Narratives regarding the integration of the Kherson oblast into Russia continue to be spread across Russian platforms. Recent publications have referred to the region as a historical part of Russia, finally liberated from fascists. Furthermore, Russian sources have underscored the high demand for Russian passports in the region.

This Ukraine Situation Report is prepared in the framework of the project “Building Resilience in Conflict Through Dialogue” funded by the European Union

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